Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo overnight lows near 20–21 °C on July 4 under mostly cloudy to showery conditions, limiting radiative cooling and supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 19–22 °C. Seasonal guidance for above-normal summer temperatures is tempered by lingering early-July moisture and cloud cover that suppresses diurnal ranges, while urban heat-island effects and variable wind patterns introduce small uncertainties in the precise minimum. Traders weigh these model consensus elements against potential clearer breaks that could allow slightly lower readings near 19 °C or retained humidity keeping values at 22 °C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7月4日东京最低气温？
7月4日东京最低气温？
21°C 100.0%
16°C或以下 <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$44,470 交易量
$44,470 交易量
2026-07-04
16°C或以下
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
是
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C或以上
否
21°C 100.0%
16°C或以下 <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$44,470 交易量
$44,470 交易量
2026-07-04
16°C或以下
$1,867 交易量
否
17°C
$842 交易量
否
18°C
$1,978 交易量
否
19°C
$2,638 交易量
否
20°C
$7,474 交易量
否
21°C
$15,178 交易量
是
22°C
$3,662 交易量
否
23°C
$3,892 交易量
否
24°C
$2,524 交易量
否
25°C
$2,180 交易量
否
26°C或以上
$2,235 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo overnight lows near 20–21 °C on July 4 under mostly cloudy to showery conditions, limiting radiative cooling and supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 19–22 °C. Seasonal guidance for above-normal summer temperatures is tempered by lingering early-July moisture and cloud cover that suppresses diurnal ranges, while urban heat-island effects and variable wind patterns introduce small uncertainties in the precise minimum. Traders weigh these model consensus elements against potential clearer breaks that could allow slightly lower readings near 19 °C or retained humidity keeping values at 22 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$44,470结束日期
2026-07-04市场开放时间
Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo overnight lows near 20–21 °C on July 4 under mostly cloudy to showery conditions, limiting radiative cooling and supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 19–22 °C. Seasonal guidance for above-normal summer temperatures is tempered by lingering early-July moisture and cloud cover that suppresses diurnal ranges, while urban heat-island effects and variable wind patterns introduce small uncertainties in the precise minimum. Traders weigh these model consensus elements against potential clearer breaks that could allow slightly lower readings near 19 °C or retained humidity keeping values at 22 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$44,470结束日期
2026-07-04市场开放时间
Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo overnight lows near 20–21 °C on July 4 under mostly cloudy to showery conditions, limiting radiative cooling and supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 19–22 °C. Seasonal guidance for above-normal summer temperatures is tempered by lingering early-July moisture and cloud cover that suppresses diurnal ranges, while urban heat-island effects and variable wind patterns introduce small uncertainties in the precise minimum. Traders weigh these model consensus elements against potential clearer breaks that could allow slightly lower readings near 19 °C or retained humidity keeping values at 22 °C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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