The 97% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026 reflects the absence of any credible military preparations or policy directives authorizing force, despite early 2026 diplomatic friction over Arctic security and U.S. interest in expanded basing rights. President Trump repeatedly declined to rule out acquisition options in January but soon clarified that military action was off the table, with the Pentagon confirming no invasion planning occurred. Denmark, a NATO ally, reinforced its defenses alongside other alliance members, while trilateral negotiations shifted toward enhanced cooperation frameworks rather than sovereignty transfer. An invasion would breach post-1945 territorial norms, risk NATO collapse, and face prohibitive logistical barriers from Greenland’s terrain and climate. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential late-year shifts in Arctic competition or negotiation breakdowns, though these have not altered the prevailing trader consensus.