Traders assign a 97% probability against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026 because the Trump administration ruled out military force early in the year after initial annexation threats triggered NATO warnings, Danish defense reinforcements, and European condemnation. Ongoing trilateral talks focus on expanded U.S. basing rights and Arctic security cooperation under existing defense pacts rather than territorial seizure, while logistical barriers, alliance fracture risks, and Greenlandic opposition to any takeover reinforce the consensus. Recent developments include continued negotiations over additional bases and rare-earth access without escalation to force. Late-year shifts could still arise from major Arctic confrontations with Russia or China, abrupt policy reversals, or breakdowns in Denmark-U.S. talks that reopen military contingency planning.