Trump’s repeated public statements that he has not considered or thought about pardoning Ghislaine Maxwell, combined with Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s May 2026 Senate testimony that the Justice Department would not recommend clemency, have anchored trader expectations. A unanimous July 2026 Senate resolution opposing any pardon for her sex-trafficking conviction further signals broad institutional resistance. Maxwell’s legal avenues, including a rejected August 2026 habeas petition, have closed without generating administration momentum, while ongoing Epstein-files scrutiny and survivor advocacy raise the political costs of any grant. These factors have sustained the market’s 95 percent probability against a pardon by year-end.