Trader consensus assigns 100% implied probability to a 12°C high in Warsaw on April 11, driven by official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport—Poland's primary meteorological station—peaking at 12°C around midday under partly cloudy conditions with light northerly winds. IMGW hourly data and METAR reports confirm temperatures held at 11°C by late afternoon (18:30 local), aligning with ECMWF and GFS model consensus forecasting no further rise before sunset at 19:29 amid a cool air mass. This matches April climatology slightly below the 13°C average. Realistic challenges include an improbable late clear-sky adiabatic warming burst or post-event measurement revision by IMGW, but proximity to resolution minimizes risk.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 11?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 11?
12°C 100.0%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$83,897 Vol.
$83,897 Vol.
11. Apr. 2026
12°C
100%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
12°C 100.0%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$83,897 Vol.
$83,897 Vol.
11. Apr. 2026
12°C
$13,428 Vol.
100%
13°C
$10,773 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$6,624 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$5,197 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$4,327 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$3,997 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns 100% implied probability to a 12°C high in Warsaw on April 11, driven by official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport—Poland's primary meteorological station—peaking at 12°C around midday under partly cloudy conditions with light northerly winds. IMGW hourly data and METAR reports confirm temperatures held at 11°C by late afternoon (18:30 local), aligning with ECMWF and GFS model consensus forecasting no further rise before sunset at 19:29 amid a cool air mass. This matches April climatology slightly below the 13°C average. Realistic challenges include an improbable late clear-sky adiabatic warming burst or post-event measurement revision by IMGW, but proximity to resolution minimizes risk.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 7, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Volumen
$83,897Enddatum
11. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 7, 2026, 1:05 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns 100% implied probability to a 12°C high in Warsaw on April 11, driven by official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport—Poland's primary meteorological station—peaking at 12°C around midday under partly cloudy conditions with light northerly winds. IMGW hourly data and METAR reports confirm temperatures held at 11°C by late afternoon (18:30 local), aligning with ECMWF and GFS model consensus forecasting no further rise before sunset at 19:29 amid a cool air mass. This matches April climatology slightly below the 13°C average. Realistic challenges include an improbable late clear-sky adiabatic warming burst or post-event measurement revision by IMGW, but proximity to resolution minimizes risk.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$83,897Enddatum
11. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 7, 2026, 1:05 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns 100% implied probability to a 12°C high in Warsaw on April 11, driven by official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport—Poland's primary meteorological station—peaking at 12°C around midday under partly cloudy conditions with light northerly winds. IMGW hourly data and METAR reports confirm temperatures held at 11°C by late afternoon (18:30 local), aligning with ECMWF and GFS model consensus forecasting no further rise before sunset at 19:29 amid a cool air mass. This matches April climatology slightly below the 13°C average. Realistic challenges include an improbable late clear-sky adiabatic warming burst or post-event measurement revision by IMGW, but proximity to resolution minimizes risk.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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