Recent numerical weather model consensus from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international forecasts positions Tokyo’s minimum temperature on September 1 near 23–25 °C, aligning with the market’s heaviest volume on 24 °C and 23 °C. Persistent warm, humid maritime air and light easterly flow under partly cloudy skies have prevented significant overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows elevated relative to seasonal norms. Short-range guidance shows only modest variability across ensemble members, with no approaching cold front or enhanced cloud cover expected to alter the range before dawn on the first. Traders are therefore concentrating implied probability within the narrow 23–25 °C band, reflecting the tight clustering of official forecast guidance and the absence of disruptive meteorological developments in the final 48 hours.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Tokio am 1. September?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Tokio am 1. September?
24°C 48%
23°C 31%
25°C 15%
21°C 8%
NEU
NEU
1. Sep. 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
8%
22°C
1%
23°C
31%
24°C
48%
25°C
18%
26°C
2%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 48%
23°C 31%
25°C 15%
21°C 8%
NEU
NEU
1. Sep. 2026
19°C or below
$203 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$51 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$226 Vol.
8%
22°C
$441 Vol.
1%
23°C
$290 Vol.
31%
24°C
$256 Vol.
48%
25°C
$364 Vol.
18%
26°C
$212 Vol.
2%
27°C
$83 Vol.
1%
28°C
$228 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$124 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather model consensus from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international forecasts positions Tokyo’s minimum temperature on September 1 near 23–25 °C, aligning with the market’s heaviest volume on 24 °C and 23 °C. Persistent warm, humid maritime air and light easterly flow under partly cloudy skies have prevented significant overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows elevated relative to seasonal norms. Short-range guidance shows only modest variability across ensemble members, with no approaching cold front or enhanced cloud cover expected to alter the range before dawn on the first. Traders are therefore concentrating implied probability within the narrow 23–25 °C band, reflecting the tight clustering of official forecast guidance and the absence of disruptive meteorological developments in the final 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$2,479Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather model consensus from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international forecasts positions Tokyo’s minimum temperature on September 1 near 23–25 °C, aligning with the market’s heaviest volume on 24 °C and 23 °C. Persistent warm, humid maritime air and light easterly flow under partly cloudy skies have prevented significant overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows elevated relative to seasonal norms. Short-range guidance shows only modest variability across ensemble members, with no approaching cold front or enhanced cloud cover expected to alter the range before dawn on the first. Traders are therefore concentrating implied probability within the narrow 23–25 °C band, reflecting the tight clustering of official forecast guidance and the absence of disruptive meteorological developments in the final 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$2,479Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather model consensus from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international forecasts positions Tokyo’s minimum temperature on September 1 near 23–25 °C, aligning with the market’s heaviest volume on 24 °C and 23 °C. Persistent warm, humid maritime air and light easterly flow under partly cloudy skies have prevented significant overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows elevated relative to seasonal norms. Short-range guidance shows only modest variability across ensemble members, with no approaching cold front or enhanced cloud cover expected to alter the range before dawn on the first. Traders are therefore concentrating implied probability within the narrow 23–25 °C band, reflecting the tight clustering of official forecast guidance and the absence of disruptive meteorological developments in the final 48 hours.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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