Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high temperature around 14°C (28.5% implied probability) for Ankara on April 5, closely trailed by 13°C (22.5%) and 15°C (18.5%), reflecting the spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hovering near 13°C amid short-range forecast uncertainty. This positioning stems from recent model runs indicating a mid-level trough bringing increased cloudiness and possible afternoon showers over Central Anatolia, capping daytime heating despite typical early-April highs averaging 15-17°C at Esenboğa International Airport station. Differentiating factors include ensemble member divergence on cloud persistence—clearer skies could push toward 15-16°C, while persistent overcast favors 13°C or below—against Ankara's continental climate prone to spring variability. Watch for 00Z ECMWF/GFS updates and Turkish State Meteorological Service bulletins within 24 hours for potential shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Ankara on April 5?
Highest temperature in Ankara on April 5?
14°C 29%
13°C 24%
15°C 16%
16°C 14%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 abr 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
2%
12°C
9%
13°C
24%
14°C
29%
15°C
16%
16°C
14%
17°C or higher
8%
14°C 29%
13°C 24%
15°C 16%
16°C 14%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 abr 2026
7°C or below
$449 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$734 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$896 Vol.
1%
10°C
$209 Vol.
2%
11°C
$239 Vol.
2%
12°C
$213 Vol.
9%
13°C
$665 Vol.
24%
14°C
$265 Vol.
29%
15°C
$328 Vol.
16%
16°C
$345 Vol.
14%
17°C or higher
$542 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high temperature around 14°C (28.5% implied probability) for Ankara on April 5, closely trailed by 13°C (22.5%) and 15°C (18.5%), reflecting the spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hovering near 13°C amid short-range forecast uncertainty. This positioning stems from recent model runs indicating a mid-level trough bringing increased cloudiness and possible afternoon showers over Central Anatolia, capping daytime heating despite typical early-April highs averaging 15-17°C at Esenboğa International Airport station. Differentiating factors include ensemble member divergence on cloud persistence—clearer skies could push toward 15-16°C, while persistent overcast favors 13°C or below—against Ankara's continental climate prone to spring variability. Watch for 00Z ECMWF/GFS updates and Turkish State Meteorological Service bulletins within 24 hours for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volumen
$4,821Fecha de finalización
5 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high temperature around 14°C (28.5% implied probability) for Ankara on April 5, closely trailed by 13°C (22.5%) and 15°C (18.5%), reflecting the spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hovering near 13°C amid short-range forecast uncertainty. This positioning stems from recent model runs indicating a mid-level trough bringing increased cloudiness and possible afternoon showers over Central Anatolia, capping daytime heating despite typical early-April highs averaging 15-17°C at Esenboğa International Airport station. Differentiating factors include ensemble member divergence on cloud persistence—clearer skies could push toward 15-16°C, while persistent overcast favors 13°C or below—against Ankara's continental climate prone to spring variability. Watch for 00Z ECMWF/GFS updates and Turkish State Meteorological Service bulletins within 24 hours for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$4,821Fecha de finalización
5 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high temperature around 14°C (28.5% implied probability) for Ankara on April 5, closely trailed by 13°C (22.5%) and 15°C (18.5%), reflecting the spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hovering near 13°C amid short-range forecast uncertainty. This positioning stems from recent model runs indicating a mid-level trough bringing increased cloudiness and possible afternoon showers over Central Anatolia, capping daytime heating despite typical early-April highs averaging 15-17°C at Esenboğa International Airport station. Differentiating factors include ensemble member divergence on cloud persistence—clearer skies could push toward 15-16°C, while persistent overcast favors 13°C or below—against Ankara's continental climate prone to spring variability. Watch for 00Z ECMWF/GFS updates and Turkish State Meteorological Service bulletins within 24 hours for potential shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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