Trader consensus favors a maximum temperature of 33°C or below in Lucknow on March 25 at 49.5% implied probability, driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts indicating partly cloudy skies with highs around 32-34°C amid lingering western disturbances bringing cooler northeasterly winds. Historical late-March data for Lucknow shows average maxima of 32-35°C, with diurnal ranges typically 10-15°C, but recent observations from March 23-24 recorded peaks of 31-32°C, suppressing hotter outcomes like 37°C (15%). Minimal heatwave risk persists due to neutral ENSO conditions transitioning from El Niño, though model ensembles from IMD and ECMWF carry 20-30% uncertainty for isolated spikes above 36°C if winds shift southerly. Upcoming hourly updates could refine these market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Lucknow el 25 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Lucknow el 25 de marzo?
33°C o menos 50%
34°C 15%
35°C 12%
36°C 12%
33°C o menos
50%
34°C
15%
35°C
12%
36°C
12%
37°C
8%
38°C
1%
39°C
1%
40°C
6%
41°C
7%
42°C
1%
43°C o más
1%
33°C o menos 50%
34°C 15%
35°C 12%
36°C 12%
33°C o menos
50%
34°C
15%
35°C
12%
36°C
12%
37°C
8%
38°C
1%
39°C
1%
40°C
6%
41°C
7%
42°C
1%
43°C o más
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a maximum temperature of 33°C or below in Lucknow on March 25 at 49.5% implied probability, driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts indicating partly cloudy skies with highs around 32-34°C amid lingering western disturbances bringing cooler northeasterly winds. Historical late-March data for Lucknow shows average maxima of 32-35°C, with diurnal ranges typically 10-15°C, but recent observations from March 23-24 recorded peaks of 31-32°C, suppressing hotter outcomes like 37°C (15%). Minimal heatwave risk persists due to neutral ENSO conditions transitioning from El Niño, though model ensembles from IMD and ECMWF carry 20-30% uncertainty for isolated spikes above 36°C if winds shift southerly. Upcoming hourly updates could refine these market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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