Minimal observed rainfall at Heathrow Airport through mid-April 2026—exemplified by just 2.6mm over April 10-14—has propelled trader consensus toward the <20mm outcome at 67% implied probability, well below the climatological April average of around 45mm. A persistent high-pressure ridge fostered record early-month warmth peaking at 26.5°C in nearby Kew Gardens, suppressing frontal systems and convection typically delivering spring showers to southeast England. Met Office model ensembles indicate subdued Atlantic moisture inflow for the remaining fortnight, limiting upside risk for higher totals despite potential scattered showers. Traders weigh this skin-in-the-game assessment against inherent forecast uncertainty, with daily precipitation maps and updates key to monitor ahead of month-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPrecipitation in London in April?
Precipitation in London in April?
<20mm 67.3%
40-50mm 16.2%
20-30mm 11.7%
30-40mm 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 abr 2026
<20mm
67%
20-30mm
7%
30-40mm
12%
40-50mm
16%
50-60mm
3%
60-70mm
2%
70mm+
3%
<20mm 67.3%
40-50mm 16.2%
20-30mm 11.7%
30-40mm 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 abr 2026
<20mm
$2,237 Vol.
67%
20-30mm
$662 Vol.
7%
30-40mm
$1,108 Vol.
12%
40-50mm
$893 Vol.
16%
50-60mm
$1,841 Vol.
3%
60-70mm
$798 Vol.
2%
70mm+
$1,126 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Minimal observed rainfall at Heathrow Airport through mid-April 2026—exemplified by just 2.6mm over April 10-14—has propelled trader consensus toward the <20mm outcome at 67% implied probability, well below the climatological April average of around 45mm. A persistent high-pressure ridge fostered record early-month warmth peaking at 26.5°C in nearby Kew Gardens, suppressing frontal systems and convection typically delivering spring showers to southeast England. Met Office model ensembles indicate subdued Atlantic moisture inflow for the remaining fortnight, limiting upside risk for higher totals despite potential scattered showers. Traders weigh this skin-in-the-game assessment against inherent forecast uncertainty, with daily precipitation maps and updates key to monitor ahead of month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volumen
$8,667Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Minimal observed rainfall at Heathrow Airport through mid-April 2026—exemplified by just 2.6mm over April 10-14—has propelled trader consensus toward the <20mm outcome at 67% implied probability, well below the climatological April average of around 45mm. A persistent high-pressure ridge fostered record early-month warmth peaking at 26.5°C in nearby Kew Gardens, suppressing frontal systems and convection typically delivering spring showers to southeast England. Met Office model ensembles indicate subdued Atlantic moisture inflow for the remaining fortnight, limiting upside risk for higher totals despite potential scattered showers. Traders weigh this skin-in-the-game assessment against inherent forecast uncertainty, with daily precipitation maps and updates key to monitor ahead of month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$8,667Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Minimal observed rainfall at Heathrow Airport through mid-April 2026—exemplified by just 2.6mm over April 10-14—has propelled trader consensus toward the <20mm outcome at 67% implied probability, well below the climatological April average of around 45mm. A persistent high-pressure ridge fostered record early-month warmth peaking at 26.5°C in nearby Kew Gardens, suppressing frontal systems and convection typically delivering spring showers to southeast England. Met Office model ensembles indicate subdued Atlantic moisture inflow for the remaining fortnight, limiting upside risk for higher totals despite potential scattered showers. Traders weigh this skin-in-the-game assessment against inherent forecast uncertainty, with daily precipitation maps and updates key to monitor ahead of month-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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