Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62.5% implied probability for Argentina's March 2026 monthly inflation in the 3.1–3.3% range, reflecting persistent price pressures following February's 2.9% print—stable from January but above the 2.7% median economist forecast per central bank surveys. Key drivers include elevated food, utility, and fuel costs, exacerbated by a recent oil shock from the Iran conflict that has strained President Milei's disinflation efforts and prompted upward revisions to full-year forecasts like BBVA's 24% for 2026. Private estimates, such as Libertad y Progreso's 2.9% for March, anchor the nearby 2.8–3.0% outcome at 21.5%, while traders anticipate a modest acceleration amid sluggish Q1 growth. INDEC's official Consumer Price Index release, expected mid-April, remains the pivotal catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedArgentina Monthly Inflation - March
Argentina Monthly Inflation - March
3.1–3.3% 62%
2.8–3.0% 22%
3.4–3.6% 4.0%
2.5–2.7% 3.5%
$19,174 Vol.
$19,174 Vol.
Apr 14, 2026
≤2.1%
1%
2.2–2.4%
<1%
2.5–2.7%
6%
2.8–3.0%
22%
3.1–3.3%
62%
3.4–3.6%
4%
3.7%+
2%
3.1–3.3% 62%
2.8–3.0% 22%
3.4–3.6% 4.0%
2.5–2.7% 3.5%
$19,174 Vol.
$19,174 Vol.
Apr 14, 2026
≤2.1%
$1,500 Vol.
1%
2.2–2.4%
$1,126 Vol.
<1%
2.5–2.7%
$1,452 Vol.
6%
2.8–3.0%
$1,937 Vol.
22%
3.1–3.3%
$6,361 Vol.
62%
3.4–3.6%
$2,714 Vol.
4%
3.7%+
$4,084 Vol.
2%
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in March 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on April 14, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62.5% implied probability for Argentina's March 2026 monthly inflation in the 3.1–3.3% range, reflecting persistent price pressures following February's 2.9% print—stable from January but above the 2.7% median economist forecast per central bank surveys. Key drivers include elevated food, utility, and fuel costs, exacerbated by a recent oil shock from the Iran conflict that has strained President Milei's disinflation efforts and prompted upward revisions to full-year forecasts like BBVA's 24% for 2026. Private estimates, such as Libertad y Progreso's 2.9% for March, anchor the nearby 2.8–3.0% outcome at 21.5%, while traders anticipate a modest acceleration amid sluggish Q1 growth. INDEC's official Consumer Price Index release, expected mid-April, remains the pivotal catalyst.
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in March 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on April 14, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in March 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on April 14, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 10:40 AM ET
Volume
$19,174End Date
Apr 14, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 10:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in March 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on April 14, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62.5% implied probability for Argentina's March 2026 monthly inflation in the 3.1–3.3% range, reflecting persistent price pressures following February's 2.9% print—stable from January but above the 2.7% median economist forecast per central bank surveys. Key drivers include elevated food, utility, and fuel costs, exacerbated by a recent oil shock from the Iran conflict that has strained President Milei's disinflation efforts and prompted upward revisions to full-year forecasts like BBVA's 24% for 2026. Private estimates, such as Libertad y Progreso's 2.9% for March, anchor the nearby 2.8–3.0% outcome at 21.5%, while traders anticipate a modest acceleration amid sluggish Q1 growth. INDEC's official Consumer Price Index release, expected mid-April, remains the pivotal catalyst.
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in March 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on April 14, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in March 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on April 14, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$19,174End Date
Apr 14, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 10:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62.5% implied probability for Argentina's March 2026 monthly inflation in the 3.1–3.3% range, reflecting persistent price pressures following February's 2.9% print—stable from January but above the 2.7% median economist forecast per central bank surveys. Key drivers include elevated food, utility, and fuel costs, exacerbated by a recent oil shock from the Iran conflict that has strained President Milei's disinflation efforts and prompted upward revisions to full-year forecasts like BBVA's 24% for 2026. Private estimates, such as Libertad y Progreso's 2.9% for March, anchor the nearby 2.8–3.0% outcome at 21.5%, while traders anticipate a modest acceleration amid sluggish Q1 growth. INDEC's official Consumer Price Index release, expected mid-April, remains the pivotal catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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