Persistent inflation pressures, including elevated PCE readings near 4% amid energy shocks and AI-driven spending, have narrowed the gap between a 25 basis point hike and no change at the December FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds at 47.5% and 44.5% respectively. Recent labor market data showing unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and subdued payroll gains support a hold, while June SEP revisions lifted the median federal funds rate projection to 3.8% for year-end 2026 and removed forward guidance under Chair Warsh. Key upcoming catalysts include September CPI, employment reports, and the September FOMC projections, which will clarify whether supply-side factors sustain the hawkish tilt or allow stabilization around the current 3.5-3.75% target range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25 bps increase 48%
No change 45%
25 bps decrease 8.4%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$456,834 Vol.
$456,834 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
45%
25 bps increase
48%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 48%
No change 45%
25 bps decrease 8.4%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$456,834 Vol.
$456,834 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$75,848 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$99,574 Vol.
8%
No change
$71,877 Vol.
45%
25 bps increase
$124,338 Vol.
48%
50+ bps increase
$85,197 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures, including elevated PCE readings near 4% amid energy shocks and AI-driven spending, have narrowed the gap between a 25 basis point hike and no change at the December FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds at 47.5% and 44.5% respectively. Recent labor market data showing unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and subdued payroll gains support a hold, while June SEP revisions lifted the median federal funds rate projection to 3.8% for year-end 2026 and removed forward guidance under Chair Warsh. Key upcoming catalysts include September CPI, employment reports, and the September FOMC projections, which will clarify whether supply-side factors sustain the hawkish tilt or allow stabilization around the current 3.5-3.75% target range.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$456,834End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures, including elevated PCE readings near 4% amid energy shocks and AI-driven spending, have narrowed the gap between a 25 basis point hike and no change at the December FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds at 47.5% and 44.5% respectively. Recent labor market data showing unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and subdued payroll gains support a hold, while June SEP revisions lifted the median federal funds rate projection to 3.8% for year-end 2026 and removed forward guidance under Chair Warsh. Key upcoming catalysts include September CPI, employment reports, and the September FOMC projections, which will clarify whether supply-side factors sustain the hawkish tilt or allow stabilization around the current 3.5-3.75% target range.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$456,834End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures, including elevated PCE readings near 4% amid energy shocks and AI-driven spending, have narrowed the gap between a 25 basis point hike and no change at the December FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds at 47.5% and 44.5% respectively. Recent labor market data showing unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and subdued payroll gains support a hold, while June SEP revisions lifted the median federal funds rate projection to 3.8% for year-end 2026 and removed forward guidance under Chair Warsh. Key upcoming catalysts include September CPI, employment reports, and the September FOMC projections, which will clarify whether supply-side factors sustain the hawkish tilt or allow stabilization around the current 3.5-3.75% target range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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