Trader consensus on Polymarket leans slightly toward a 14°C high in Amsterdam on April 13, with 13°C close behind, reflecting ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS models amid inherent short-term forecast uncertainty. The primary driver is the Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI) outlook for a maximum of 13°C under heavily overcast skies, light northerly winds (Beaufort 2), and 40% chance of light rain (0-3 mm), which suppress diurnal heating by limiting solar insolation. Cooler maritime air from the north caps potential warming, though partial cloud breaks or delayed precipitation could enable 14-15°C peaks. Resolution hinges on the official highest reading at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol station; watch intraday KNMI updates for shifts. Historical mid-April highs average 12-13°C, aligning with this tight clustering.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on April 13?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on April 13?
14°C 30%
13°C 29%
15°C 22%
12°C 14%
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
3%
12°C
14%
13°C
29%
14°C
30%
15°C
22%
16°C
4%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
1%
14°C 30%
13°C 29%
15°C 22%
12°C 14%
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
3%
12°C
14%
13°C
29%
14°C
30%
15°C
22%
16°C
4%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 9, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket leans slightly toward a 14°C high in Amsterdam on April 13, with 13°C close behind, reflecting ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS models amid inherent short-term forecast uncertainty. The primary driver is the Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI) outlook for a maximum of 13°C under heavily overcast skies, light northerly winds (Beaufort 2), and 40% chance of light rain (0-3 mm), which suppress diurnal heating by limiting solar insolation. Cooler maritime air from the north caps potential warming, though partial cloud breaks or delayed precipitation could enable 14-15°C peaks. Resolution hinges on the official highest reading at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol station; watch intraday KNMI updates for shifts. Historical mid-April highs average 12-13°C, aligning with this tight clustering.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions