Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Beijing's highest temperature for April 17, with implied probabilities clustering around 23–25°C amid a narrow 22–25°C spread in global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Today's cooler highs of 13–17°C under light rain and northerly winds contrast with tomorrow's expected sunny skies and southerly flow, boosting solar insolation and boundary layer warming toward seasonal norms near 20°C. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on peak afternoon cloud cover, urban heat island amplification in central Beijing, and wind shear effects; the China Meteorological Administration's latest guidance points to a 24°C high, but resolution hinges on official observations from monitoring stations like Haidian or Dongcheng before midnight UTC. Updated model runs overnight could refine this before final readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on April 17?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 17?
25°C 25%
24°C 21%
23°C 20%
22°C 17%
NEW
$29,924 Vol.
NEW
$29,924 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
21°C or below
5%
22°C
17%
23°C
20%
24°C
21%
25°C
25%
26°C
10%
27°C
3%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 25%
24°C 21%
23°C 20%
22°C 17%
NEW
$29,924 Vol.
NEW
$29,924 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
21°C or below
$4,782 Vol.
5%
22°C
$3,413 Vol.
17%
23°C
$3,043 Vol.
20%
24°C
$2,293 Vol.
21%
25°C
$1,928 Vol.
25%
26°C
$3,206 Vol.
10%
27°C
$1,966 Vol.
3%
28°C
$2,954 Vol.
1%
29°C
$2,129 Vol.
1%
30°C
$2,212 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$1,997 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Beijing's highest temperature for April 17, with implied probabilities clustering around 23–25°C amid a narrow 22–25°C spread in global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Today's cooler highs of 13–17°C under light rain and northerly winds contrast with tomorrow's expected sunny skies and southerly flow, boosting solar insolation and boundary layer warming toward seasonal norms near 20°C. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on peak afternoon cloud cover, urban heat island amplification in central Beijing, and wind shear effects; the China Meteorological Administration's latest guidance points to a 24°C high, but resolution hinges on official observations from monitoring stations like Haidian or Dongcheng before midnight UTC. Updated model runs overnight could refine this before final readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 1:26 AM ET
Volume
$29,924End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 1:26 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Beijing's highest temperature for April 17, with implied probabilities clustering around 23–25°C amid a narrow 22–25°C spread in global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Today's cooler highs of 13–17°C under light rain and northerly winds contrast with tomorrow's expected sunny skies and southerly flow, boosting solar insolation and boundary layer warming toward seasonal norms near 20°C. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on peak afternoon cloud cover, urban heat island amplification in central Beijing, and wind shear effects; the China Meteorological Administration's latest guidance points to a 24°C high, but resolution hinges on official observations from monitoring stations like Haidian or Dongcheng before midnight UTC. Updated model runs overnight could refine this before final readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$29,924End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 1:26 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Beijing's highest temperature for April 17, with implied probabilities clustering around 23–25°C amid a narrow 22–25°C spread in global forecast models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Today's cooler highs of 13–17°C under light rain and northerly winds contrast with tomorrow's expected sunny skies and southerly flow, boosting solar insolation and boundary layer warming toward seasonal norms near 20°C. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on peak afternoon cloud cover, urban heat island amplification in central Beijing, and wind shear effects; the China Meteorological Administration's latest guidance points to a 24°C high, but resolution hinges on official observations from monitoring stations like Haidian or Dongcheng before midnight UTC. Updated model runs overnight could refine this before final readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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