Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 8, 2026, driven by real-time observations at the official resolution site—Beijing Capital International Airport station via Wunderground—registering a peak of 28°C under hazy sunshine and light southerly winds below 10 km/h. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration forecasts capping at 27–28°C, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles factoring in urban aerosol haze suppressing solar insolation despite morning lows of 14–20°C enabling 8–14°C diurnal heating, above early May climatological norms of 24–27°C. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists, a realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon surge to 29°C from sudden clearing or urban heat island effects before solar angles decline post-3 PM local time, with final hourly data expected by midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on May 8?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 8?
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$105,277 Vol.
$105,277 Vol.
May 8, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$105,277 Vol.
$105,277 Vol.
May 8, 2026
23°C or below
$6,822 Vol.
No
24°C
$6,487 Vol.
No
25°C
$7,863 Vol.
No
26°C
$15,366 Vol.
No
27°C
$12,807 Vol.
No
28°C
$16,938 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$15,876 Vol.
No
30°C
$9,951 Vol.
No
31°C
$4,737 Vol.
No
32°C
$4,170 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$4,261 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 8, 2026, driven by real-time observations at the official resolution site—Beijing Capital International Airport station via Wunderground—registering a peak of 28°C under hazy sunshine and light southerly winds below 10 km/h. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration forecasts capping at 27–28°C, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles factoring in urban aerosol haze suppressing solar insolation despite morning lows of 14–20°C enabling 8–14°C diurnal heating, above early May climatological norms of 24–27°C. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists, a realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon surge to 29°C from sudden clearing or urban heat island effects before solar angles decline post-3 PM local time, with final hourly data expected by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 6, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Volume
$105,277End Date
May 8, 2026Market Opened
May 6, 2026, 12:21 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 8, 2026, driven by real-time observations at the official resolution site—Beijing Capital International Airport station via Wunderground—registering a peak of 28°C under hazy sunshine and light southerly winds below 10 km/h. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration forecasts capping at 27–28°C, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles factoring in urban aerosol haze suppressing solar insolation despite morning lows of 14–20°C enabling 8–14°C diurnal heating, above early May climatological norms of 24–27°C. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists, a realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon surge to 29°C from sudden clearing or urban heat island effects before solar angles decline post-3 PM local time, with final hourly data expected by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$105,277End Date
May 8, 2026Market Opened
May 6, 2026, 12:21 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 28°C on May 8, 2026, driven by real-time observations at the official resolution site—Beijing Capital International Airport station via Wunderground—registering a peak of 28°C under hazy sunshine and light southerly winds below 10 km/h. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration forecasts capping at 27–28°C, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles factoring in urban aerosol haze suppressing solar insolation despite morning lows of 14–20°C enabling 8–14°C diurnal heating, above early May climatological norms of 24–27°C. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists, a realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon surge to 29°C from sudden clearing or urban heat island effects before solar angles decline post-3 PM local time, with final hourly data expected by midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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