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Highest temperature in Chicago on April 8?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Chicago on April 8?

Apr 4

Apr 5

Apr 6

Apr 7

Apr 4

Apr 5

Apr 6

Apr 7

50°F or higher 92%

46-47°F 1.9%

32-33°F 1.6%

48-49°F 1.6%

Polymarket
NEW

50°F or higher 92%

46-47°F 1.9%

32-33°F 1.6%

48-49°F 1.6%

Polymarket
NEW

31°F or below

$309 Vol.

1%

32-33°F

$285 Vol.

2%

34-35°F

$285 Vol.

<1%

36-37°F

$365 Vol.

1%

38-39°F

$164 Vol.

1%

40-41°F

$163 Vol.

2%

42-43°F

$163 Vol.

1%

44-45°F

$163 Vol.

1%

46-47°F

$155 Vol.

2%

48-49°F

$377 Vol.

2%

50°F or higher

$377 Vol.

92%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus strongly favors Chicago's highest temperature reaching 50°F or higher on April 8, with 90.5% market-implied odds, driven by the National Weather Service Chicago's latest forecast discussion (issued April 3) indicating southerly flow ushering milder conditions midweek after an early-week cold front. This aligns with model consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing highs near or above the 56°F April normal, following lows in the 20s on April 7 morning but a rapid spring warm-up. Historical April patterns support quick recoveries post-fronts, with minimal risk of sub-50°F given the upper-air ridge building eastward. Realistic challenges include a stalled front delaying the warm sector or model busts in front timing, though current NOAA guidance shows high confidence; watch daily 12Z updates for shifts.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,802
End Date
Apr 8, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus strongly favors Chicago's highest temperature reaching 50°F or higher on April 8, with 90.5% market-implied odds, driven by the National Weather Service Chicago's latest forecast discussion (issued April 3) indicating southerly flow ushering milder conditions midweek after an early-week cold front. This aligns with model consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing highs near or above the 56°F April normal, following lows in the 20s on April 7 morning but a rapid spring warm-up. Historical April patterns support quick recoveries post-fronts, with minimal risk of sub-50°F given the upper-air ridge building eastward. Realistic challenges include a stalled front delaying the warm sector or model busts in front timing, though current NOAA guidance shows high confidence; watch daily 12Z updates for shifts.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,802
End Date
Apr 8, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Chicago on April 8?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "50°F or higher" at 92%, followed by "32-33°F" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Chicago on April 8?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Chicago on April 8?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Chicago on April 8?" is "50°F or higher" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "32-33°F" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Chicago on April 8?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.