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Highest temperature in Dallas on April 1?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Dallas on April 1?

Mar 28

Mar 29

Apr 1

Mar 28

Mar 29

Apr 1

84°F or higher 28%

82-83°F 22%

74-75°F 14%

76-77°F 13%

Polymarket
NEW

84°F or higher 28%

82-83°F 22%

74-75°F 14%

76-77°F 13%

Polymarket
NEW

65°F or below

$219 Vol.

1%

66-67°F

$198 Vol.

1%

68-69°F

$79 Vol.

2%

70-71°F

$93 Vol.

4%

72-73°F

$95 Vol.

6%

74-75°F

$1,901 Vol.

14%

76-77°F

$1,685 Vol.

13%

78-79°F

$952 Vol.

13%

80-81°F

$374 Vol.

12%

82-83°F

$125 Vol.

22%

84°F or higher

$830 Vol.

28%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 33.5% implied probability to 84°F or higher as the leading outcome for Dallas's highest temperature on April 1, driven by recent record-shattering warmth—including a 95°F high at DFW Airport last week—and NOAA's spring outlook favoring above-normal temperatures across North Texas due to persistent high-pressure ridges and drought-reduced soil moisture that amplifies daytime heating. National Weather Service guidance points to highs near 78°F, but GFS and ECMWF ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in ridge strength, with potential weak fronts or cloud cover from late-March rainfall signals capping temperatures in the 74-83°F range (collectively ~68%). Key variables include upper-air patterns, wind speeds, and evaporative cooling deficits; daily model runs through March 31 will refine probabilities ahead of resolution via official NWS observations at Dallas Love Field or DFW Airport.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 33.5% implied probability to 84°F or higher as the leading outcome for Dallas's highest temperature on April 1, driven by recent record-shattering warmth—including a 95°F high at DFW Airport last week—and NOAA's spring outlook favoring above-normal temperatures across North Texas due to persistent high-pressure ridges and drought-reduced soil moisture that amplifies daytime heating. National Weather Service guidance points to highs near 78°F, but GFS and ECMWF ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in ridge strength, with potential weak fronts or cloud cover from late-March rainfall signals capping temperatures in the 74-83°F range (collectively ~68%). Key variables include upper-air patterns, wind speeds, and evaporative cooling deficits; daily model runs through March 31 will refine probabilities ahead of resolution via official NWS observations at Dallas Love Field or DFW Airport.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 33.5% implied probability to 84°F or higher as the leading outcome for Dallas's highest temperature on April 1, driven by recent record-shattering warmth—including a 95°F high at DFW Airport last week—and NOAA's spring outlook favoring above-normal temperatures across North Texas due to persistent high-pressure ridges and drought-reduced soil moisture that amplifies daytime heating. National Weather Service guidance points to highs near 78°F, but GFS and ECMWF ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in ridge strength, with potential weak fronts or cloud cover from late-March rainfall signals capping temperatures in the 74-83°F range (collectively ~68%). Key variables include upper-air patterns, wind speeds, and evaporative cooling deficits; daily model runs through March 31 will refine probabilities ahead of resolution via official NWS observations at Dallas Love Field or DFW Airport.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 33.5% implied probability to 84°F or higher as the leading outcome for Dallas's highest temperature on April 1, driven by recent record-shattering warmth—including a 95°F high at DFW Airport last week—and NOAA's spring outlook favoring above-normal temperatures across North Texas due to persistent high-pressure ridges and drought-reduced soil moisture that amplifies daytime heating. National Weather Service guidance points to highs near 78°F, but GFS and ECMWF ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in ridge strength, with potential weak fronts or cloud cover from late-March rainfall signals capping temperatures in the 74-83°F range (collectively ~68%). Key variables include upper-air patterns, wind speeds, and evaporative cooling deficits; daily model runs through March 31 will refine probabilities ahead of resolution via official NWS observations at Dallas Love Field or DFW Airport.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Dallas on April 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "84°F or higher" at 28%, followed by "82-83°F" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Dallas on April 1?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Dallas on April 1?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Dallas on April 1?" is "84°F or higher" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "82-83°F" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Dallas on April 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.