National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model runs project a high near 102°F for Dallas on August 30 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow, with heat indices exceeding 105°F. This consensus anchors the market's heavy weighting toward the 100-101°F bin at 59.5%, as late-summer climatology favors 94–102°F peaks and recent days have delivered similar 100–102°F readings without incoming fronts or moisture. Traders appear to assign modest probability to slight under- or over-achievement based on minor timing shifts in peak heating or boundary-layer mixing, while lower-probability tails reflect the low but non-zero chance of forecast adjustments from updated model guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on August 30?
Highest temperature in Dallas on August 30?
100-101°F 60%
98-99°F 18%
102-103°F 16%
96-97°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
91°F or below
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
5%
96-97°F
7%
98-99°F
18%
100-101°F
60%
102-103°F
16%
104-105°F
6%
106-107°F
5%
108-109°F
4%
110°F or higher
4%
100-101°F 60%
98-99°F 18%
102-103°F 16%
96-97°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
91°F or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$10 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$42 Vol.
5%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
7%
98-99°F
$46 Vol.
18%
100-101°F
$430 Vol.
60%
102-103°F
$232 Vol.
16%
104-105°F
$0 Vol.
6%
106-107°F
$40 Vol.
5%
108-109°F
$20 Vol.
4%
110°F or higher
$15 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model runs project a high near 102°F for Dallas on August 30 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow, with heat indices exceeding 105°F. This consensus anchors the market's heavy weighting toward the 100-101°F bin at 59.5%, as late-summer climatology favors 94–102°F peaks and recent days have delivered similar 100–102°F readings without incoming fronts or moisture. Traders appear to assign modest probability to slight under- or over-achievement based on minor timing shifts in peak heating or boundary-layer mixing, while lower-probability tails reflect the low but non-zero chance of forecast adjustments from updated model guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ET
Volume
$835End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model runs project a high near 102°F for Dallas on August 30 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow, with heat indices exceeding 105°F. This consensus anchors the market's heavy weighting toward the 100-101°F bin at 59.5%, as late-summer climatology favors 94–102°F peaks and recent days have delivered similar 100–102°F readings without incoming fronts or moisture. Traders appear to assign modest probability to slight under- or over-achievement based on minor timing shifts in peak heating or boundary-layer mixing, while lower-probability tails reflect the low but non-zero chance of forecast adjustments from updated model guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$835End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model runs project a high near 102°F for Dallas on August 30 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow, with heat indices exceeding 105°F. This consensus anchors the market's heavy weighting toward the 100-101°F bin at 59.5%, as late-summer climatology favors 94–102°F peaks and recent days have delivered similar 100–102°F readings without incoming fronts or moisture. Traders appear to assign modest probability to slight under- or over-achievement based on minor timing shifts in peak heating or boundary-layer mixing, while lower-probability tails reflect the low but non-zero chance of forecast adjustments from updated model guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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