Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering of ECMWF and GFS ensemble means around 12–14°C for the highest temperature at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) on April 17, with 13°C leading at 38.5% implied probability amid model spread from persistent northerly winds and extensive cloud cover limiting solar heating. Current April 16 observations show morning temperatures near 10°C under overcast skies, signaling a cool air mass over the Marmara region that suppresses daytime maxima below seasonal norms of 15–16°C. Differentiating factors include forecast discrepancies in stratus deck persistence—full overcast favors 12°C (34%), while brief afternoon breaks could yield 14°C (19%); monitor late ECMWF/GFS runs and MGM updates for shifts before resolution via NOAA METAR data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?
13°C 40%
12°C 33%
14°C 16%
11°C 9%
NEW
$13,284 Vol.
NEW
$13,284 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
8°C or below
1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
9%
12°C
33%
13°C
40%
14°C
16%
15°C
3%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 40%
12°C 33%
14°C 16%
11°C 9%
NEW
$13,284 Vol.
NEW
$13,284 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
8°C or below
$1,410 Vol.
1%
9°C
$1,448 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$2,318 Vol.
1%
11°C
$2,625 Vol.
9%
12°C
$432 Vol.
33%
13°C
$476 Vol.
40%
14°C
$435 Vol.
16%
15°C
$1,363 Vol.
3%
16°C
$1,100 Vol.
1%
17°C
$1,070 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$1,227 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering of ECMWF and GFS ensemble means around 12–14°C for the highest temperature at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) on April 17, with 13°C leading at 38.5% implied probability amid model spread from persistent northerly winds and extensive cloud cover limiting solar heating. Current April 16 observations show morning temperatures near 10°C under overcast skies, signaling a cool air mass over the Marmara region that suppresses daytime maxima below seasonal norms of 15–16°C. Differentiating factors include forecast discrepancies in stratus deck persistence—full overcast favors 12°C (34%), while brief afternoon breaks could yield 14°C (19%); monitor late ECMWF/GFS runs and MGM updates for shifts before resolution via NOAA METAR data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Volume
$13,284End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering of ECMWF and GFS ensemble means around 12–14°C for the highest temperature at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) on April 17, with 13°C leading at 38.5% implied probability amid model spread from persistent northerly winds and extensive cloud cover limiting solar heating. Current April 16 observations show morning temperatures near 10°C under overcast skies, signaling a cool air mass over the Marmara region that suppresses daytime maxima below seasonal norms of 15–16°C. Differentiating factors include forecast discrepancies in stratus deck persistence—full overcast favors 12°C (34%), while brief afternoon breaks could yield 14°C (19%); monitor late ECMWF/GFS runs and MGM updates for shifts before resolution via NOAA METAR data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,284End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering of ECMWF and GFS ensemble means around 12–14°C for the highest temperature at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) on April 17, with 13°C leading at 38.5% implied probability amid model spread from persistent northerly winds and extensive cloud cover limiting solar heating. Current April 16 observations show morning temperatures near 10°C under overcast skies, signaling a cool air mass over the Marmara region that suppresses daytime maxima below seasonal norms of 15–16°C. Differentiating factors include forecast discrepancies in stratus deck persistence—full overcast favors 12°C (34%), while brief afternoon breaks could yield 14°C (19%); monitor late ECMWF/GFS runs and MGM updates for shifts before resolution via NOAA METAR data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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