Trader consensus has locked in 100% implied probability on a 34°C high in Lagos on April 30, backed by verified observational data from Murtala Muhammed International Airport, where morning METAR reports logged 29–31°C amid scattered clouds and light winds, culminating in a peak of 34°C per NiMet monitoring—precisely matching late-April climatological norms of 33–34°C maxima in the region's humid tropical savanna climate. Diurnal heating proceeded unimpeded without significant convective suppression or enhanced sea breezes, consistent with seasonal baselines from historical records. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-publication revisions by NiMet or discrepancies between airport and urban stations, though official daily summaries rarely shift once finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lagos on April 30?
Highest temperature in Lagos on April 30?
34°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$39,680 Vol.
$39,680 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
Yes
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
34°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$39,680 Vol.
$39,680 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
28°C or below
$6,875 Vol.
No
29°C
$1,742 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,250 Vol.
No
31°C
$1,331 Vol.
No
32°C
$3,056 Vol.
No
33°C
$5,073 Vol.
No
34°C
$4,760 Vol.
Yes
35°C
$6,395 Vol.
No
36°C
$4,677 Vol.
No
37°C
$1,763 Vol.
No
38°C or higher
$2,759 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in 100% implied probability on a 34°C high in Lagos on April 30, backed by verified observational data from Murtala Muhammed International Airport, where morning METAR reports logged 29–31°C amid scattered clouds and light winds, culminating in a peak of 34°C per NiMet monitoring—precisely matching late-April climatological norms of 33–34°C maxima in the region's humid tropical savanna climate. Diurnal heating proceeded unimpeded without significant convective suppression or enhanced sea breezes, consistent with seasonal baselines from historical records. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-publication revisions by NiMet or discrepancies between airport and urban stations, though official daily summaries rarely shift once finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$39,680End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in 100% implied probability on a 34°C high in Lagos on April 30, backed by verified observational data from Murtala Muhammed International Airport, where morning METAR reports logged 29–31°C amid scattered clouds and light winds, culminating in a peak of 34°C per NiMet monitoring—precisely matching late-April climatological norms of 33–34°C maxima in the region's humid tropical savanna climate. Diurnal heating proceeded unimpeded without significant convective suppression or enhanced sea breezes, consistent with seasonal baselines from historical records. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-publication revisions by NiMet or discrepancies between airport and urban stations, though official daily summaries rarely shift once finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$39,680End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus has locked in 100% implied probability on a 34°C high in Lagos on April 30, backed by verified observational data from Murtala Muhammed International Airport, where morning METAR reports logged 29–31°C amid scattered clouds and light winds, culminating in a peak of 34°C per NiMet monitoring—precisely matching late-April climatological norms of 33–34°C maxima in the region's humid tropical savanna climate. Diurnal heating proceeded unimpeded without significant convective suppression or enhanced sea breezes, consistent with seasonal baselines from historical records. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-publication revisions by NiMet or discrepancies between airport and urban stations, though official daily summaries rarely shift once finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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