PAGASA's latest forecast for Metro Manila on April 17 indicates a high of 33°C under partly cloudy skies influenced by a ridge of high pressure over Luzon, with 0-10% rain chance, anchoring trader sentiment around 33-35°C outcomes. Recent observations—such as 34.4°C on April 15 and a projected 34°C today—along with AccuWeather's 34°C estimate, explain the slight edge for 34°C at 31.5% implied probability, reflecting urban heat island effects at the Science Garden station and potential for afternoon peaks if sea breezes delay. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover and humidity levels (currently 55%), which could suppress or enhance insolation-driven heating by 1-2°C; model consensus shows tight uncertainty, with resolution hinging on tomorrow's official measurement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on April 17?
Highest temperature in Manila on April 17?
34°C 32%
35°C 26%
33°C 20%
36°C 13%
28°C or below
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
5%
33°C
20%
34°C
32%
35°C
26%
36°C
13%
37°C
3%
38°C or higher
2%
34°C 32%
35°C 26%
33°C 20%
36°C 13%
28°C or below
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
5%
33°C
20%
34°C
32%
35°C
26%
36°C
13%
37°C
3%
38°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 12:46 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...PAGASA's latest forecast for Metro Manila on April 17 indicates a high of 33°C under partly cloudy skies influenced by a ridge of high pressure over Luzon, with 0-10% rain chance, anchoring trader sentiment around 33-35°C outcomes. Recent observations—such as 34.4°C on April 15 and a projected 34°C today—along with AccuWeather's 34°C estimate, explain the slight edge for 34°C at 31.5% implied probability, reflecting urban heat island effects at the Science Garden station and potential for afternoon peaks if sea breezes delay. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover and humidity levels (currently 55%), which could suppress or enhance insolation-driven heating by 1-2°C; model consensus shows tight uncertainty, with resolution hinging on tomorrow's official measurement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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