PAGASA's latest regional forecast for Metro Manila, issued at 9:00 AM on April 25, 2026, projects a daytime high of 35°C under partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers and easterly winds, aligning with the market's near-certain consensus on 36°C as traders factor in urban heat island effects at the PAGASA Quezon City observatory and current readings already reaching 34°C. This positioning reflects dry-season climatology, where April highs typically range 33–36°C amid high solar insolation and low humidity, corroborated by consistent model outputs showing peak heating between 2–5 PM. Realistic challenges include brief afternoon showers (10–20% probability) capping temperatures below 36°C or extended clear conditions driving an unlikely surge to 37°C+, with final resolution hinging on official end-of-day observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on April 25?
Highest temperature in Manila on April 25?
36°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$39,125 Vol.
$39,125 Vol.
Apr 25, 2026
30°C or below
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$39,125 Vol.
$39,125 Vol.
Apr 25, 2026
30°C or below
$2,267 Vol.
No
31°C
$2,686 Vol.
No
32°C
$2,407 Vol.
No
33°C
$8,283 Vol.
No
34°C
$4,333 Vol.
No
35°C
$1,639 Vol.
No
36°C
$5,119 Vol.
Yes
37°C
$3,525 Vol.
No
38°C
$2,799 Vol.
No
39°C
$2,814 Vol.
No
40°C or higher
$3,254 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's latest regional forecast for Metro Manila, issued at 9:00 AM on April 25, 2026, projects a daytime high of 35°C under partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers and easterly winds, aligning with the market's near-certain consensus on 36°C as traders factor in urban heat island effects at the PAGASA Quezon City observatory and current readings already reaching 34°C. This positioning reflects dry-season climatology, where April highs typically range 33–36°C amid high solar insolation and low humidity, corroborated by consistent model outputs showing peak heating between 2–5 PM. Realistic challenges include brief afternoon showers (10–20% probability) capping temperatures below 36°C or extended clear conditions driving an unlikely surge to 37°C+, with final resolution hinging on official end-of-day observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 23, 2026, 12:27 AM ET
Volume
$39,125End Date
Apr 25, 2026Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's latest regional forecast for Metro Manila, issued at 9:00 AM on April 25, 2026, projects a daytime high of 35°C under partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers and easterly winds, aligning with the market's near-certain consensus on 36°C as traders factor in urban heat island effects at the PAGASA Quezon City observatory and current readings already reaching 34°C. This positioning reflects dry-season climatology, where April highs typically range 33–36°C amid high solar insolation and low humidity, corroborated by consistent model outputs showing peak heating between 2–5 PM. Realistic challenges include brief afternoon showers (10–20% probability) capping temperatures below 36°C or extended clear conditions driving an unlikely surge to 37°C+, with final resolution hinging on official end-of-day observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$39,125End Date
Apr 25, 2026Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
PAGASA's latest regional forecast for Metro Manila, issued at 9:00 AM on April 25, 2026, projects a daytime high of 35°C under partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers and easterly winds, aligning with the market's near-certain consensus on 36°C as traders factor in urban heat island effects at the PAGASA Quezon City observatory and current readings already reaching 34°C. This positioning reflects dry-season climatology, where April highs typically range 33–36°C amid high solar insolation and low humidity, corroborated by consistent model outputs showing peak heating between 2–5 PM. Realistic challenges include brief afternoon showers (10–20% probability) capping temperatures below 36°C or extended clear conditions driving an unlikely surge to 37°C+, with final resolution hinging on official end-of-day observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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