Recent short-range model guidance from major centers shows ensemble spreads centered on daily maximum temperatures of 31–34°C for Milan on July 1, producing the tightly bunched market probabilities. Primary drivers include modest variability in low-level advection, boundary-layer mixing, and possible afternoon cloud cover or weak frontal passage that can shift peak readings by 1–2°C. Milan’s urban heat island and Po Valley subsidence add a consistent warm bias relative to rural sites, while official resolution uses the standard WMO station network. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution runs and any overnight model shifts that could narrow or widen the distribution before the calendar day ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on July 1?
Highest temperature in Milan on July 1?
30°C or below 100%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$129,687 Vol.
$129,687 Vol.
Jul 1, 2026
30°C or below
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C or higher
No
30°C or below 100%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$129,687 Vol.
$129,687 Vol.
Jul 1, 2026
30°C or below
$25,982 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$18,832 Vol.
No
32°C
$14,497 Vol.
No
33°C
$13,828 Vol.
No
34°C
$18,194 Vol.
No
35°C
$7,967 Vol.
No
36°C
$3,119 Vol.
No
37°C
$2,663 Vol.
No
38°C
$16,996 Vol.
No
39°C
$3,628 Vol.
No
40°C or higher
$3,981 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model guidance from major centers shows ensemble spreads centered on daily maximum temperatures of 31–34°C for Milan on July 1, producing the tightly bunched market probabilities. Primary drivers include modest variability in low-level advection, boundary-layer mixing, and possible afternoon cloud cover or weak frontal passage that can shift peak readings by 1–2°C. Milan’s urban heat island and Po Valley subsidence add a consistent warm bias relative to rural sites, while official resolution uses the standard WMO station network. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution runs and any overnight model shifts that could narrow or widen the distribution before the calendar day ends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$129,687End Date
Jul 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model guidance from major centers shows ensemble spreads centered on daily maximum temperatures of 31–34°C for Milan on July 1, producing the tightly bunched market probabilities. Primary drivers include modest variability in low-level advection, boundary-layer mixing, and possible afternoon cloud cover or weak frontal passage that can shift peak readings by 1–2°C. Milan’s urban heat island and Po Valley subsidence add a consistent warm bias relative to rural sites, while official resolution uses the standard WMO station network. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution runs and any overnight model shifts that could narrow or widen the distribution before the calendar day ends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$129,687End Date
Jul 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Recent short-range model guidance from major centers shows ensemble spreads centered on daily maximum temperatures of 31–34°C for Milan on July 1, producing the tightly bunched market probabilities. Primary drivers include modest variability in low-level advection, boundary-layer mixing, and possible afternoon cloud cover or weak frontal passage that can shift peak readings by 1–2°C. Milan’s urban heat island and Po Valley subsidence add a consistent warm bias relative to rural sites, while official resolution uses the standard WMO station network. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution runs and any overnight model shifts that could narrow or widen the distribution before the calendar day ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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