Trader consensus has locked in at virtually 100% implied probability for a high temperature of 62-63°F in San Francisco on April 2, 2026, driven by official observational data from the National Weather Service's San Francisco International Airport station (KSFO), which recorded a maximum of 62°F. This outcome aligns with NOAA forecast model guidance anticipating persistent marine layer stratus clouds and cool onshore winds, which capped daytime heating below the April climatological normal of around 64°F amid typical coastal cooling patterns. Realistic challenges to this positioning would require infrequent data quality revisions during NWS post-processing or a rare station sensor recalibration, but established automated measurements at KSFO carry high reliability with negligible historical adjustment rates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on April 2?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 2?
62-63°F 100.0%
47°F or below <1%
48-49°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
$58,738 Vol.
$58,738 Vol.
47°F or below
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
Yes
64-65°F
No
66°F or higher
No
62-63°F 100.0%
47°F or below <1%
48-49°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
$58,738 Vol.
$58,738 Vol.
47°F or below
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
Yes
64-65°F
No
66°F or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 3:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus has locked in at virtually 100% implied probability for a high temperature of 62-63°F in San Francisco on April 2, 2026, driven by official observational data from the National Weather Service's San Francisco International Airport station (KSFO), which recorded a maximum of 62°F. This outcome aligns with NOAA forecast model guidance anticipating persistent marine layer stratus clouds and cool onshore winds, which capped daytime heating below the April climatological normal of around 64°F amid typical coastal cooling patterns. Realistic challenges to this positioning would require infrequent data quality revisions during NWS post-processing or a rare station sensor recalibration, but established automated measurements at KSFO carry high reliability with negligible historical adjustment rates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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