Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty between 28°C or higher (40%) and 27°C (35.5%), driven by the latest INMET and CPTEC forecast models projecting daily maxima of 27–28°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds for São Paulo on April 13. These align with autumn climatology, where average highs hover around 26°C amid subsiding frontal systems from earlier April rains, allowing greater solar insolation and urban heat island effects to potentially nudge peaks upward. Key differentiators include model ensemble spreads—INMET leaning toward 28°C with minimal cloud interference, while CPTEC holds at 27°C—and diurnally varying humidity (around 50%), which could cap heating. Official station measurements from INMET will resolve the market, with final updates expected overnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 13?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 13?
28°C or higher 39%
27°C 33%
26°C 18%
25°C 7.2%
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
7%
26°C
18%
27°C
33%
28°C or higher
39%
28°C or higher 39%
27°C 33%
26°C 18%
25°C 7.2%
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
7%
26°C
18%
27°C
33%
28°C or higher
39%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 9, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty between 28°C or higher (40%) and 27°C (35.5%), driven by the latest INMET and CPTEC forecast models projecting daily maxima of 27–28°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds for São Paulo on April 13. These align with autumn climatology, where average highs hover around 26°C amid subsiding frontal systems from earlier April rains, allowing greater solar insolation and urban heat island effects to potentially nudge peaks upward. Key differentiators include model ensemble spreads—INMET leaning toward 28°C with minimal cloud interference, while CPTEC holds at 27°C—and diurnally varying humidity (around 50%), which could cap heating. Official station measurements from INMET will resolve the market, with final updates expected overnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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