Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest short-range forecast, issued April 16, projects a Seoul high of 16–20°C on April 17 under mostly cloudy skies in the capital region clearing toward night, fueling trader consensus at 71.5% implied probability for 18°C or higher. This aligns with an ongoing warm spell, where April 16 highs reached 29°C amid clear conditions—well above mid-April historical averages of 15–17°C driven by strengthening high-pressure systems and reduced cold air advection. Cloud cover and potential southern rain spillover cap upside risk, supporting 16% odds for exactly 17°C and lower probabilities for cooler outcomes. Updated KMA model runs today could refine trajectories before official observations resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on April 17?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 17?
18°C or higher 72%
17°C 18%
16°C 7%
15°C 1.8%
$100,989 Vol.
$100,989 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
2%
16°C
7%
17°C
18%
18°C or higher
72%
18°C or higher 72%
17°C 18%
16°C 7%
15°C 1.8%
$100,989 Vol.
$100,989 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
2%
16°C
7%
17°C
18%
18°C or higher
72%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest short-range forecast, issued April 16, projects a Seoul high of 16–20°C on April 17 under mostly cloudy skies in the capital region clearing toward night, fueling trader consensus at 71.5% implied probability for 18°C or higher. This aligns with an ongoing warm spell, where April 16 highs reached 29°C amid clear conditions—well above mid-April historical averages of 15–17°C driven by strengthening high-pressure systems and reduced cold air advection. Cloud cover and potential southern rain spillover cap upside risk, supporting 16% odds for exactly 17°C and lower probabilities for cooler outcomes. Updated KMA model runs today could refine trajectories before official observations resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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