Latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS models show tight clustering for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 17 at 20-21°C under overcast skies and light northerly winds below 12 km/h, positioning these outcomes as trader favorites with 73% combined implied probability. Yesterday's observed high of 19°C amid persistent cloud cover aligns with mid-April climatological averages of 19-20°C, reflecting stable spring patterns with minimal southerly advection for pronounced warming. Inherent forecast uncertainty stems from potential diurnal cloud breaks that could elevate peaks to 22°C or thicker overcast suppressing to 19°C; updated CMA guidance and hourly observations from Shanghai stations expected overnight will refine trader consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 17?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 17?
20°C 41%
21°C 36%
19°C 11%
22°C 9.8%
$50,333 Vol.
$50,333 Vol.
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
11%
20°C
41%
21°C
36%
22°C
10%
23°C or higher
2%
20°C 41%
21°C 36%
19°C 11%
22°C 9.8%
$50,333 Vol.
$50,333 Vol.
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
11%
20°C
41%
21°C
36%
22°C
10%
23°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS models show tight clustering for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 17 at 20-21°C under overcast skies and light northerly winds below 12 km/h, positioning these outcomes as trader favorites with 73% combined implied probability. Yesterday's observed high of 19°C amid persistent cloud cover aligns with mid-April climatological averages of 19-20°C, reflecting stable spring patterns with minimal southerly advection for pronounced warming. Inherent forecast uncertainty stems from potential diurnal cloud breaks that could elevate peaks to 22°C or thicker overcast suppressing to 19°C; updated CMA guidance and hourly observations from Shanghai stations expected overnight will refine trader consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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