Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward a 30°C high in Shenzhen on April 17 (39% implied probability) over 29°C (31.5%), reflecting the latest China Meteorological Administration forecast of 29°C amid expected thundershowers and cloudy conditions that could limit peak heating. Recent warmth—April 14 peaked at 30°C and April 16 is projected near 29°C—stems from Shenzhen's subtropical climate and urban heat island effects accelerating early spring highs above the April climatological average of 26-27°C. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover timing and convective activity: prolonged overcast skies favor 29°C by reducing insolation, while afternoon clear breaks could push to 30°C per some model runs. CMA updates and Bao'an Airport observations will clarify before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 17?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 17?
30°C 43%
29°C 33%
28°C 13%
31°C 7.8%
$22,598 Vol.
$22,598 Vol.
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
13%
29°C
33%
30°C
43%
31°C
8%
32°C or higher
2%
30°C 43%
29°C 33%
28°C 13%
31°C 7.8%
$22,598 Vol.
$22,598 Vol.
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
13%
29°C
33%
30°C
43%
31°C
8%
32°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 12:38 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward a 30°C high in Shenzhen on April 17 (39% implied probability) over 29°C (31.5%), reflecting the latest China Meteorological Administration forecast of 29°C amid expected thundershowers and cloudy conditions that could limit peak heating. Recent warmth—April 14 peaked at 30°C and April 16 is projected near 29°C—stems from Shenzhen's subtropical climate and urban heat island effects accelerating early spring highs above the April climatological average of 26-27°C. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover timing and convective activity: prolonged overcast skies favor 29°C by reducing insolation, while afternoon clear breaks could push to 30°C per some model runs. CMA updates and Bao'an Airport observations will clarify before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions