Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 19°C (34.5% implied probability) and 18°C (32.5%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in forecast models amid Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) guidance for mostly cloudy skies and occasional scattered showers on April 17. Today's April 16 high reached around 23°C under mostly sunny conditions, boosting solar heating earlier in the week, but an incoming cloud deck is expected to limit insolation and cap peaks near mid-spring norms of 18–19°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station. Ensemble outputs from ECMWF and GFS converge tightly in this range, with differentiators including shower timing—earlier onset favors 18°C, delayed clearing tilts to 19°C—and boundary layer mixing. JMA's evening update may sharpen this ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 17?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 17?
19°C 33%
18°C 33%
17°C 16%
20°C 13%
NEW
$29,590 Vol.
NEW
$29,590 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
16%
18°C
33%
19°C
33%
20°C
13%
21°C
4%
22°C or higher
2%
19°C 33%
18°C 33%
17°C 16%
20°C 13%
NEW
$29,590 Vol.
NEW
$29,590 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
12°C or below
$1,956 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$2,095 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$3,605 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$2,911 Vol.
1%
16°C
$2,694 Vol.
3%
17°C
$1,571 Vol.
16%
18°C
$1,716 Vol.
33%
19°C
$1,997 Vol.
33%
20°C
$2,700 Vol.
13%
21°C
$4,248 Vol.
4%
22°C or higher
$4,097 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 19°C (34.5% implied probability) and 18°C (32.5%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in forecast models amid Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) guidance for mostly cloudy skies and occasional scattered showers on April 17. Today's April 16 high reached around 23°C under mostly sunny conditions, boosting solar heating earlier in the week, but an incoming cloud deck is expected to limit insolation and cap peaks near mid-spring norms of 18–19°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station. Ensemble outputs from ECMWF and GFS converge tightly in this range, with differentiators including shower timing—earlier onset favors 18°C, delayed clearing tilts to 19°C—and boundary layer mixing. JMA's evening update may sharpen this ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$29,590End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 19°C (34.5% implied probability) and 18°C (32.5%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in forecast models amid Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) guidance for mostly cloudy skies and occasional scattered showers on April 17. Today's April 16 high reached around 23°C under mostly sunny conditions, boosting solar heating earlier in the week, but an incoming cloud deck is expected to limit insolation and cap peaks near mid-spring norms of 18–19°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station. Ensemble outputs from ECMWF and GFS converge tightly in this range, with differentiators including shower timing—earlier onset favors 18°C, delayed clearing tilts to 19°C—and boundary layer mixing. JMA's evening update may sharpen this ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$29,590End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 19°C (34.5% implied probability) and 18°C (32.5%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in forecast models amid Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) guidance for mostly cloudy skies and occasional scattered showers on April 17. Today's April 16 high reached around 23°C under mostly sunny conditions, boosting solar heating earlier in the week, but an incoming cloud deck is expected to limit insolation and cap peaks near mid-spring norms of 18–19°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station. Ensemble outputs from ECMWF and GFS converge tightly in this range, with differentiators including shower timing—earlier onset favors 18°C, delayed clearing tilts to 19°C—and boundary layer mixing. JMA's evening update may sharpen this ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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