Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects razor-thin uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts for Tokyo's April 17 high temperature, with ensemble models clustering around 18-19°C under mostly cloudy conditions following April 16's scattered showers from a passing weak front. The slight edge to 19°C stems from subtle divergences in ECMWF and GFS runs favoring marginally higher peaks if afternoon cloud breaks allow increased solar insolation, while persistent overcast could cap readings at 18°C amid light southerly winds and typical springtime urban heat island effects. Historical data shows April 17 averages near 19°C with a standard deviation of 2-3°C, underscoring model sensitivity to boundary layer mixing. JMA hourly updates expected through midday April 17 will likely sharpen resolution as observations refine the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 17?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 17?
19°C 33%
18°C 32%
17°C 19%
20°C 13%
NEW
$29,742 Vol.
NEW
$29,742 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
19%
18°C
32%
19°C
33%
20°C
13%
21°C
3%
22°C or higher
2%
19°C 33%
18°C 32%
17°C 19%
20°C 13%
NEW
$29,742 Vol.
NEW
$29,742 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
12°C or below
$1,956 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$2,095 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$3,605 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$2,917 Vol.
1%
16°C
$2,700 Vol.
3%
17°C
$1,615 Vol.
19%
18°C
$1,727 Vol.
32%
19°C
$2,029 Vol.
33%
20°C
$2,747 Vol.
13%
21°C
$4,272 Vol.
3%
22°C or higher
$4,142 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects razor-thin uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts for Tokyo's April 17 high temperature, with ensemble models clustering around 18-19°C under mostly cloudy conditions following April 16's scattered showers from a passing weak front. The slight edge to 19°C stems from subtle divergences in ECMWF and GFS runs favoring marginally higher peaks if afternoon cloud breaks allow increased solar insolation, while persistent overcast could cap readings at 18°C amid light southerly winds and typical springtime urban heat island effects. Historical data shows April 17 averages near 19°C with a standard deviation of 2-3°C, underscoring model sensitivity to boundary layer mixing. JMA hourly updates expected through midday April 17 will likely sharpen resolution as observations refine the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$29,742End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects razor-thin uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts for Tokyo's April 17 high temperature, with ensemble models clustering around 18-19°C under mostly cloudy conditions following April 16's scattered showers from a passing weak front. The slight edge to 19°C stems from subtle divergences in ECMWF and GFS runs favoring marginally higher peaks if afternoon cloud breaks allow increased solar insolation, while persistent overcast could cap readings at 18°C amid light southerly winds and typical springtime urban heat island effects. Historical data shows April 17 averages near 19°C with a standard deviation of 2-3°C, underscoring model sensitivity to boundary layer mixing. JMA hourly updates expected through midday April 17 will likely sharpen resolution as observations refine the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$29,742End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects razor-thin uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts for Tokyo's April 17 high temperature, with ensemble models clustering around 18-19°C under mostly cloudy conditions following April 16's scattered showers from a passing weak front. The slight edge to 19°C stems from subtle divergences in ECMWF and GFS runs favoring marginally higher peaks if afternoon cloud breaks allow increased solar insolation, while persistent overcast could cap readings at 18°C amid light southerly winds and typical springtime urban heat island effects. Historical data shows April 17 averages near 19°C with a standard deviation of 2-3°C, underscoring model sensitivity to boundary layer mixing. JMA hourly updates expected through midday April 17 will likely sharpen resolution as observations refine the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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