Observed maximum temperatures at Wellington's Kelburn and International Airport stations reached 16°C during early afternoon on May 4, 2026, under partly sunny skies and northerly winds of 20-22 km/h, aligning precisely with MetService's latest forecast of a 16°C high amid a drifting high-pressure system. Hourly data from official monitors show peaks of 61°F (16.1°C) between 11:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m., followed by cooling to 57°F (14°C) by evening, reflecting limited solar heating due to partial cloud cover and sea breeze influences typical for the Cook Strait region. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 16°C reflects this locked-in observational evidence, with negligible risk of revision barring erroneous data corrections—uncommon in automated MetService reporting. Final NIWA validation expected soon, but current positioning is robust.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on May 4?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 4?
16°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$77,854 Vol.
$77,854 Vol.
May 4, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$77,854 Vol.
$77,854 Vol.
May 4, 2026
10°C or below
$2,816 Vol.
No
11°C
$266 Vol.
No
12°C
$1,603 Vol.
No
13°C
$5,742 Vol.
No
14°C
$11,502 Vol.
No
15°C
$14,567 Vol.
No
16°C
$15,086 Vol.
Yes
17°C
$8,495 Vol.
No
18°C
$8,295 Vol.
No
19°C
$5,807 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$3,675 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Observed maximum temperatures at Wellington's Kelburn and International Airport stations reached 16°C during early afternoon on May 4, 2026, under partly sunny skies and northerly winds of 20-22 km/h, aligning precisely with MetService's latest forecast of a 16°C high amid a drifting high-pressure system. Hourly data from official monitors show peaks of 61°F (16.1°C) between 11:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m., followed by cooling to 57°F (14°C) by evening, reflecting limited solar heating due to partial cloud cover and sea breeze influences typical for the Cook Strait region. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 16°C reflects this locked-in observational evidence, with negligible risk of revision barring erroneous data corrections—uncommon in automated MetService reporting. Final NIWA validation expected soon, but current positioning is robust.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$77,854End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Observed maximum temperatures at Wellington's Kelburn and International Airport stations reached 16°C during early afternoon on May 4, 2026, under partly sunny skies and northerly winds of 20-22 km/h, aligning precisely with MetService's latest forecast of a 16°C high amid a drifting high-pressure system. Hourly data from official monitors show peaks of 61°F (16.1°C) between 11:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m., followed by cooling to 57°F (14°C) by evening, reflecting limited solar heating due to partial cloud cover and sea breeze influences typical for the Cook Strait region. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 16°C reflects this locked-in observational evidence, with negligible risk of revision barring erroneous data corrections—uncommon in automated MetService reporting. Final NIWA validation expected soon, but current positioning is robust.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$77,854End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Observed maximum temperatures at Wellington's Kelburn and International Airport stations reached 16°C during early afternoon on May 4, 2026, under partly sunny skies and northerly winds of 20-22 km/h, aligning precisely with MetService's latest forecast of a 16°C high amid a drifting high-pressure system. Hourly data from official monitors show peaks of 61°F (16.1°C) between 11:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m., followed by cooling to 57°F (14°C) by evening, reflecting limited solar heating due to partial cloud cover and sea breeze influences typical for the Cook Strait region. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 16°C reflects this locked-in observational evidence, with negligible risk of revision barring erroneous data corrections—uncommon in automated MetService reporting. Final NIWA validation expected soon, but current positioning is robust.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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