Recent forecasts from MetService and other models point to a maximum of 14–15°C in Wellington on September 26, driven by northerly winds advecting milder air under a high-pressure ridge, with partly cloudy skies and light showers possible but unlikely to suppress the peak. Spring climatology supports this range, as September averages hover near 14–15°C, and current model runs show limited variability in daytime heating. Traders have priced the 15°C outcome highest, reflecting the narrow spread in ensemble guidance and low odds of significant deviation from northerly steering patterns. Updated model runs and any shift in wind direction or cloud cover ahead of the date remain the key variables that could alter the final observed maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 26?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 26?
15°C 53%
14°C 33%
16°C 16%
17°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
2%
12°C
9%
13°C
9%
14°C
33%
15°C
53%
16°C
16%
17°C
12%
18°C
10%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 53%
14°C 33%
16°C 16%
17°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
9°C or below
$31 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$0 Vol.
2%
12°C
$5 Vol.
9%
13°C
$10 Vol.
9%
14°C
$168 Vol.
33%
15°C
$612 Vol.
53%
16°C
$47 Vol.
16%
17°C
$0 Vol.
12%
18°C
$0 Vol.
10%
19°C or higher
$31 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService and other models point to a maximum of 14–15°C in Wellington on September 26, driven by northerly winds advecting milder air under a high-pressure ridge, with partly cloudy skies and light showers possible but unlikely to suppress the peak. Spring climatology supports this range, as September averages hover near 14–15°C, and current model runs show limited variability in daytime heating. Traders have priced the 15°C outcome highest, reflecting the narrow spread in ensemble guidance and low odds of significant deviation from northerly steering patterns. Updated model runs and any shift in wind direction or cloud cover ahead of the date remain the key variables that could alter the final observed maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$922End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService and other models point to a maximum of 14–15°C in Wellington on September 26, driven by northerly winds advecting milder air under a high-pressure ridge, with partly cloudy skies and light showers possible but unlikely to suppress the peak. Spring climatology supports this range, as September averages hover near 14–15°C, and current model runs show limited variability in daytime heating. Traders have priced the 15°C outcome highest, reflecting the narrow spread in ensemble guidance and low odds of significant deviation from northerly steering patterns. Updated model runs and any shift in wind direction or cloud cover ahead of the date remain the key variables that could alter the final observed maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$922End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47de9d...Recent forecasts from MetService and other models point to a maximum of 14–15°C in Wellington on September 26, driven by northerly winds advecting milder air under a high-pressure ridge, with partly cloudy skies and light showers possible but unlikely to suppress the peak. Spring climatology supports this range, as September averages hover near 14–15°C, and current model runs show limited variability in daytime heating. Traders have priced the 15°C outcome highest, reflecting the narrow spread in ensemble guidance and low odds of significant deviation from northerly steering patterns. Updated model runs and any shift in wind direction or cloud cover ahead of the date remain the key variables that could alter the final observed maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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