With vote counting for Kerala's 140-seat Legislative Assembly election scheduled for May 4 following April 9 polling that saw over 75% turnout by evening, trader consensus slightly favors CPI(M) at 54% implied probability over INC at 45.5%, reflecting a razor-thin contest between the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) and opposition United Democratic Front (UDF). Pre-poll surveys like Manorama-C Voter and others showed overlapping projections—LDF strong in southern districts like Kollam amid welfare schemes and organizational edge, UDF ahead in northern areas leveraging 2024 Lok Sabha gains and anti-incumbency against two-term Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Pivotal swing seats (around 20), minority vote consolidation (IUML Muslims bolstering UDF, Christian splits), and negligible NDA spoiler impact keep the race tight; clearer exit poll trends or internal alliance frictions could tip balances before results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner
Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner
CPI(M) 54%
INC 45%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$280,262 Vol.
$280,262 Vol.
Apr 9, 2026
CPI(M)
54%
INC
45%
BSP
<1%
CPI
<1%
JD(S)
<1%
RSP
<1%
KEC(M)
<1%
BJP
<1%
NCP
<1%
IUML
<1%
CPI(M) 54%
INC 45%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$280,262 Vol.
$280,262 Vol.
Apr 9, 2026
CPI(M)
$35,262 Vol.
54%
INC
$34,767 Vol.
45%
BSP
$12,297 Vol.
<1%
CPI
$28,084 Vol.
<1%
JD(S)
$24,403 Vol.
<1%
RSP
$13,090 Vol.
<1%
KEC(M)
$13,613 Vol.
<1%
BJP
$57,830 Vol.
<1%
NCP
$45,976 Vol.
<1%
IUML
$14,939 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).With vote counting for Kerala's 140-seat Legislative Assembly election scheduled for May 4 following April 9 polling that saw over 75% turnout by evening, trader consensus slightly favors CPI(M) at 54% implied probability over INC at 45.5%, reflecting a razor-thin contest between the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) and opposition United Democratic Front (UDF). Pre-poll surveys like Manorama-C Voter and others showed overlapping projections—LDF strong in southern districts like Kollam amid welfare schemes and organizational edge, UDF ahead in northern areas leveraging 2024 Lok Sabha gains and anti-incumbency against two-term Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Pivotal swing seats (around 20), minority vote consolidation (IUML Muslims bolstering UDF, Christian splits), and negligible NDA spoiler impact keep the race tight; clearer exit poll trends or internal alliance frictions could tip balances before results.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$280,262End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).With vote counting for Kerala's 140-seat Legislative Assembly election scheduled for May 4 following April 9 polling that saw over 75% turnout by evening, trader consensus slightly favors CPI(M) at 54% implied probability over INC at 45.5%, reflecting a razor-thin contest between the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) and opposition United Democratic Front (UDF). Pre-poll surveys like Manorama-C Voter and others showed overlapping projections—LDF strong in southern districts like Kollam amid welfare schemes and organizational edge, UDF ahead in northern areas leveraging 2024 Lok Sabha gains and anti-incumbency against two-term Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Pivotal swing seats (around 20), minority vote consolidation (IUML Muslims bolstering UDF, Christian splits), and negligible NDA spoiler impact keep the race tight; clearer exit poll trends or internal alliance frictions could tip balances before results.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$280,262End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With vote counting for Kerala's 140-seat Legislative Assembly election scheduled for May 4 following April 9 polling that saw over 75% turnout by evening, trader consensus slightly favors CPI(M) at 54% implied probability over INC at 45.5%, reflecting a razor-thin contest between the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) and opposition United Democratic Front (UDF). Pre-poll surveys like Manorama-C Voter and others showed overlapping projections—LDF strong in southern districts like Kollam amid welfare schemes and organizational edge, UDF ahead in northern areas leveraging 2024 Lok Sabha gains and anti-incumbency against two-term Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Pivotal swing seats (around 20), minority vote consolidation (IUML Muslims bolstering UDF, Christian splits), and negligible NDA spoiler impact keep the race tight; clearer exit poll trends or internal alliance frictions could tip balances before results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
81%
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 19 and 21 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
43%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election?
96%
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions