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Elections·Canada

Next Premier of Quebec

Market icon
Elections·Canada

Next Premier of Quebec

NEW
Polymarket
NEW
Market icon

Christine Fréchette

$3,686 Vol.

78%

Market icon

Bernard Drainville

$5,759 Vol.

22%

Leadership elections for the Quebec governing political party, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), are scheduled to be held on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the CAQ leadership elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by the date of the next Quebec general election, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Christine Fréchette holds a commanding 77% implied probability as next Quebec Premier in trader consensus, driven by her sustained polling lead and early momentum in the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) leadership race to succeed resigning Premier François Legault, who stepped down in January amid sagging approval ratings. Bernard Drainville trails at 21.5% but narrowed the gap following endorsements from three senior cabinet ministers—announced April 6—bolstering his appeal among party members ahead of the imminent leadership vote. The two-candidate contest, featuring debates in late March, will determine CAQ's leader and interim Premier until the next provincial election, with party ballots from National Assembly members and grassroots voters tipping the balance.

Leadership elections for the Quebec governing political party, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), are scheduled to be held on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the CAQ leadership elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by the date of the next Quebec general election, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,390
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 6, 2026, 6:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Leadership elections for the Quebec governing political party, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), are scheduled to be held on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the CAQ leadership elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by the date of the next Quebec general election, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Leadership elections for the Quebec governing political party, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), are scheduled to be held on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the CAQ leadership elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by the date of the next Quebec general election, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Christine Fréchette holds a commanding 77% implied probability as next Quebec Premier in trader consensus, driven by her sustained polling lead and early momentum in the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) leadership race to succeed resigning Premier François Legault, who stepped down in January amid sagging approval ratings. Bernard Drainville trails at 21.5% but narrowed the gap following endorsements from three senior cabinet ministers—announced April 6—bolstering his appeal among party members ahead of the imminent leadership vote. The two-candidate contest, featuring debates in late March, will determine CAQ's leader and interim Premier until the next provincial election, with party ballots from National Assembly members and grassroots voters tipping the balance.

Leadership elections for the Quebec governing political party, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), are scheduled to be held on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the CAQ leadership elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by the date of the next Quebec general election, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,390
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 6, 2026, 6:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Leadership elections for the Quebec governing political party, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), are scheduled to be held on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the CAQ leadership elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by the date of the next Quebec general election, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Premier of Quebec" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Christine Fréchette" at 78%, followed by "Bernard Drainville" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 78¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Next Premier of Quebec" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 6, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Next Premier of Quebec," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Premier of Quebec" is "Christine Fréchette" at 78%, meaning the market assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Bernard Drainville" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Premier of Quebec" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.