**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature of 15–17°C overnight into September 4 in Ankara, with 16°C as the most probable value under current model guidance.** Multiple sources, including PredictWind, Yr.no, and Weather25, project a daily low of 16°C or 17°C for Friday, September 4, amid clear skies and light northeasterly winds. Hourly breakdowns from Esenboğa Airport data show temperatures falling to 15–16°C around 5–6 a.m. local time due to strong radiative cooling under dry, cloud-free conditions typical of Ankara’s continental climate in early September. This narrow range explains the tight market clustering around 15°C (49.0%) and 16°C (47.5%), with nearby outcomes at 44%. Subtle differences in model resolution of boundary-layer mixing, dew-point depression, and exact wind speeds can shift the recorded minimum by 1°C. Historical climatology supports this: September 4 averages near 12–15°C at night, but the current stable high-pressure pattern favors slightly milder values. No incoming fronts or moisture are expected to alter the trajectory before resolution, keeping the focus on fine-scale nocturnal cooling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on September 4?
17°C 88%
12°C 87%
13°C 86%
14°C 86%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
11°C or below
69%
12°C
87%
13°C
86%
14°C
86%
15°C
51%
16°C
50%
17°C
88%
18°C
2%
19°C
18%
20°C
41%
21°C or higher
59%
17°C 88%
12°C 87%
13°C 86%
14°C 86%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
12°C
$0 Vol.
87%
13°C
$0 Vol.
86%
14°C
$0 Vol.
86%
15°C
$0 Vol.
51%
16°C
$0 Vol.
50%
17°C
$0 Vol.
88%
18°C
$0 Vol.
2%
19°C
$0 Vol.
18%
20°C
$0 Vol.
41%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature of 15–17°C overnight into September 4 in Ankara, with 16°C as the most probable value under current model guidance.** Multiple sources, including PredictWind, Yr.no, and Weather25, project a daily low of 16°C or 17°C for Friday, September 4, amid clear skies and light northeasterly winds. Hourly breakdowns from Esenboğa Airport data show temperatures falling to 15–16°C around 5–6 a.m. local time due to strong radiative cooling under dry, cloud-free conditions typical of Ankara’s continental climate in early September.
This narrow range explains the tight market clustering around 15°C (49.0%) and 16°C (47.5%), with nearby outcomes at 44%. Subtle differences in model resolution of boundary-layer mixing, dew-point depression, and exact wind speeds can shift the recorded minimum by 1°C. Historical climatology supports this: September 4 averages near 12–15°C at night, but the current stable high-pressure pattern favors slightly milder values. No incoming fronts or moisture are expected to alter the trajectory before resolution, keeping the focus on fine-scale nocturnal cooling.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature of 15–17°C overnight into September 4 in Ankara, with 16°C as the most probable value under current model guidance.** Multiple sources, including PredictWind, Yr.no, and Weather25, project a daily low of 16°C or 17°C for Friday, September 4, amid clear skies and light northeasterly winds. Hourly breakdowns from Esenboğa Airport data show temperatures falling to 15–16°C around 5–6 a.m. local time due to strong radiative cooling under dry, cloud-free conditions typical of Ankara’s continental climate in early September.
This narrow range explains the tight market clustering around 15°C (49.0%) and 16°C (47.5%), with nearby outcomes at 44%. Subtle differences in model resolution of boundary-layer mixing, dew-point depression, and exact wind speeds can shift the recorded minimum by 1°C. Historical climatology supports this: September 4 averages near 12–15°C at night, but the current stable high-pressure pattern favors slightly milder values. No incoming fronts or moisture are expected to alter the trajectory before resolution, keeping the focus on fine-scale nocturnal cooling.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature of 15–17°C overnight into September 4 in Ankara, with 16°C as the most probable value under current model guidance.** Multiple sources, including PredictWind, Yr.no, and Weather25, project a daily low of 16°C or 17°C for Friday, September 4, amid clear skies and light northeasterly winds. Hourly breakdowns from Esenboğa Airport data show temperatures falling to 15–16°C around 5–6 a.m. local time due to strong radiative cooling under dry, cloud-free conditions typical of Ankara’s continental climate in early September. This narrow range explains the tight market clustering around 15°C (49.0%) and 16°C (47.5%), with nearby outcomes at 44%. Subtle differences in model resolution of boundary-layer mixing, dew-point depression, and exact wind speeds can shift the recorded minimum by 1°C. Historical climatology supports this: September 4 averages near 12–15°C at night, but the current stable high-pressure pattern favors slightly milder values. No incoming fronts or moisture are expected to alter the trajectory before resolution, keeping the focus on fine-scale nocturnal cooling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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