**Current numerical weather prediction models from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international ensembles project overnight lows near 16–17°C in Ankara on September 5 under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow.** This setup favors typical late-summer radiative cooling without significant cloud cover or wind to moderate temperature drops, aligning with the elevated market-implied odds on 13°C or below as traders price in possible model variability, urban heat island effects, or slight downward revisions in guidance. Recent stability in high-pressure patterns has kept temperatures consistent with seasonal baselines, though short-term ensemble spreads introduce uncertainty around exact minima. Official forecast updates and observational data releases in the coming days will likely sharpen these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on September 5?
23°C or higher 59%
16°C 49%
17°C 49%
13°C or below 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
13°C or below
48%
14°C
28%
15°C
28%
16°C
49%
17°C
49%
18°C
2%
19°C
19%
20°C
20%
21°C
8%
22°C
8%
23°C or higher
59%
23°C or higher 59%
16°C 49%
17°C 49%
13°C or below 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
48%
14°C
$0 Vol.
28%
15°C
$0 Vol.
28%
16°C
$0 Vol.
49%
17°C
$0 Vol.
49%
18°C
$0 Vol.
2%
19°C
$0 Vol.
19%
20°C
$0 Vol.
20%
21°C
$0 Vol.
8%
22°C
$0 Vol.
8%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current numerical weather prediction models from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international ensembles project overnight lows near 16–17°C in Ankara on September 5 under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow.** This setup favors typical late-summer radiative cooling without significant cloud cover or wind to moderate temperature drops, aligning with the elevated market-implied odds on 13°C or below as traders price in possible model variability, urban heat island effects, or slight downward revisions in guidance. Recent stability in high-pressure patterns has kept temperatures consistent with seasonal baselines, though short-term ensemble spreads introduce uncertainty around exact minima. Official forecast updates and observational data releases in the coming days will likely sharpen these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current numerical weather prediction models from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international ensembles project overnight lows near 16–17°C in Ankara on September 5 under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow.** This setup favors typical late-summer radiative cooling without significant cloud cover or wind to moderate temperature drops, aligning with the elevated market-implied odds on 13°C or below as traders price in possible model variability, urban heat island effects, or slight downward revisions in guidance. Recent stability in high-pressure patterns has kept temperatures consistent with seasonal baselines, though short-term ensemble spreads introduce uncertainty around exact minima. Official forecast updates and observational data releases in the coming days will likely sharpen these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current numerical weather prediction models from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international ensembles project overnight lows near 16–17°C in Ankara on September 5 under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow.** This setup favors typical late-summer radiative cooling without significant cloud cover or wind to moderate temperature drops, aligning with the elevated market-implied odds on 13°C or below as traders price in possible model variability, urban heat island effects, or slight downward revisions in guidance. Recent stability in high-pressure patterns has kept temperatures consistent with seasonal baselines, though short-term ensemble spreads introduce uncertainty around exact minima. Official forecast updates and observational data releases in the coming days will likely sharpen these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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