Recent numerical weather prediction models indicate a minimum temperature of 13°C in Beijing on September 12, driven by clear skies, light southerly winds, and strong nocturnal radiative cooling under stable high-pressure conditions that allow surface temperatures to drop efficiently after sunset. Official forecasts consistently project an overnight low near this threshold, aligning with seasonal norms for mid-September when average lows hover around 17°C but current synoptic patterns favor greater cooling. Trader consensus at 98% implied probability reflects high confidence in these model outputs, though resolution depends on the precise official station reading; minor deviations from urban heat effects, measurement timing, or unforecasted cloud cover could shift the recorded minimum and alter outcomes near the 12–14°C range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 12?
13°C 98%
11°C 45%
10°C or below 15%
14°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
10°C or below
15%
11°C
45%
12°C
-
13°C
98%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
13°C 98%
11°C 45%
10°C or below 15%
14°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
10°C or below
$10 Vol.
15%
11°C
$0 Vol.
45%
12°C
$25 Vol.
-
13°C
$66 Vol.
98%
14°C
$386 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$126 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$90 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$500 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$227 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$35 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models indicate a minimum temperature of 13°C in Beijing on September 12, driven by clear skies, light southerly winds, and strong nocturnal radiative cooling under stable high-pressure conditions that allow surface temperatures to drop efficiently after sunset. Official forecasts consistently project an overnight low near this threshold, aligning with seasonal norms for mid-September when average lows hover around 17°C but current synoptic patterns favor greater cooling. Trader consensus at 98% implied probability reflects high confidence in these model outputs, though resolution depends on the precise official station reading; minor deviations from urban heat effects, measurement timing, or unforecasted cloud cover could shift the recorded minimum and alter outcomes near the 12–14°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,490End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models indicate a minimum temperature of 13°C in Beijing on September 12, driven by clear skies, light southerly winds, and strong nocturnal radiative cooling under stable high-pressure conditions that allow surface temperatures to drop efficiently after sunset. Official forecasts consistently project an overnight low near this threshold, aligning with seasonal norms for mid-September when average lows hover around 17°C but current synoptic patterns favor greater cooling. Trader consensus at 98% implied probability reflects high confidence in these model outputs, though resolution depends on the precise official station reading; minor deviations from urban heat effects, measurement timing, or unforecasted cloud cover could shift the recorded minimum and alter outcomes near the 12–14°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,490End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models indicate a minimum temperature of 13°C in Beijing on September 12, driven by clear skies, light southerly winds, and strong nocturnal radiative cooling under stable high-pressure conditions that allow surface temperatures to drop efficiently after sunset. Official forecasts consistently project an overnight low near this threshold, aligning with seasonal norms for mid-September when average lows hover around 17°C but current synoptic patterns favor greater cooling. Trader consensus at 98% implied probability reflects high confidence in these model outputs, though resolution depends on the precise official station reading; minor deviations from urban heat effects, measurement timing, or unforecasted cloud cover could shift the recorded minimum and alter outcomes near the 12–14°C range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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