Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a low around 21–24°C for Guangzhou on September 4 amid an approaching frontal system with mid-level rain and persistent cloud cover, which limits radiative cooling overnight while introducing cooler advection. High humidity near 85–95% and light winds further moderate temperature drops, keeping overnight minima above historical early-September averages of 24–25°C yet below recent warmer periods. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty in exact model runs, with the 42% implied probability on 18°C or below capturing potential for stronger cooling if the rain band weakens, while the near-37% on 28°C or higher accounts for residual warm advection if clouds clear earlier than expected. Upcoming NMC and ECMWF updates will refine steering patterns and precipitation timing ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 4?
18°C or below 77%
28°C or higher 77%
20°C 48%
21°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
18°C or below
77%
19°C
9%
20°C
48%
21°C
48%
22°C
48%
23°C
36%
24°C
28%
25°C
47%
26°C
48%
27°C
9%
28°C or higher
77%
18°C or below 77%
28°C or higher 77%
20°C 48%
21°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
77%
19°C
$0 Vol.
9%
20°C
$0 Vol.
48%
21°C
$0 Vol.
48%
22°C
$0 Vol.
48%
23°C
$0 Vol.
36%
24°C
$0 Vol.
28%
25°C
$0 Vol.
47%
26°C
$0 Vol.
48%
27°C
$0 Vol.
9%
28°C or higher
$0 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a low around 21–24°C for Guangzhou on September 4 amid an approaching frontal system with mid-level rain and persistent cloud cover, which limits radiative cooling overnight while introducing cooler advection. High humidity near 85–95% and light winds further moderate temperature drops, keeping overnight minima above historical early-September averages of 24–25°C yet below recent warmer periods. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty in exact model runs, with the 42% implied probability on 18°C or below capturing potential for stronger cooling if the rain band weakens, while the near-37% on 28°C or higher accounts for residual warm advection if clouds clear earlier than expected. Upcoming NMC and ECMWF updates will refine steering patterns and precipitation timing ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a low around 21–24°C for Guangzhou on September 4 amid an approaching frontal system with mid-level rain and persistent cloud cover, which limits radiative cooling overnight while introducing cooler advection. High humidity near 85–95% and light winds further moderate temperature drops, keeping overnight minima above historical early-September averages of 24–25°C yet below recent warmer periods. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty in exact model runs, with the 42% implied probability on 18°C or below capturing potential for stronger cooling if the rain band weakens, while the near-37% on 28°C or higher accounts for residual warm advection if clouds clear earlier than expected. Upcoming NMC and ECMWF updates will refine steering patterns and precipitation timing ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a low around 21–24°C for Guangzhou on September 4 amid an approaching frontal system with mid-level rain and persistent cloud cover, which limits radiative cooling overnight while introducing cooler advection. High humidity near 85–95% and light winds further moderate temperature drops, keeping overnight minima above historical early-September averages of 24–25°C yet below recent warmer periods. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty in exact model runs, with the 42% implied probability on 18°C or below capturing potential for stronger cooling if the rain band weakens, while the near-37% on 28°C or higher accounts for residual warm advection if clouds clear earlier than expected. Upcoming NMC and ECMWF updates will refine steering patterns and precipitation timing ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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