Recent forecasts for Guangzhou indicate a minimum temperature near 23–25°C on September 5, with model spreads arising from variable cloud cover, scattered showers, and weak northerly flow that limit nocturnal cooling. High humidity near 70–90% and light winds reduce radiative heat loss, while urban heat retention in the Pearl River Delta typically elevates overnight lows relative to rural baselines. Recent regional rainfall has moistened soils, further moderating temperature drops. With outcomes clustered between 22–25°C holding nearly equal implied probabilities, traders are weighting ensemble model divergence and the precise timing of any clearing skies, which could shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 5?
19°C or below 69%
21°C 49%
26°C 49%
27°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
19°C or below
69%
20°C
19%
21°C
49%
22°C
26%
23°C
28%
24°C
29%
25°C
27%
26°C
49%
27°C
49%
28°C
19%
29°C or higher
2%
19°C or below 69%
21°C 49%
26°C 49%
27°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
19°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
20°C
$0 Vol.
19%
21°C
$0 Vol.
49%
22°C
$0 Vol.
26%
23°C
$0 Vol.
28%
24°C
$0 Vol.
29%
25°C
$0 Vol.
27%
26°C
$0 Vol.
49%
27°C
$0 Vol.
49%
28°C
$0 Vol.
19%
29°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Guangzhou indicate a minimum temperature near 23–25°C on September 5, with model spreads arising from variable cloud cover, scattered showers, and weak northerly flow that limit nocturnal cooling. High humidity near 70–90% and light winds reduce radiative heat loss, while urban heat retention in the Pearl River Delta typically elevates overnight lows relative to rural baselines. Recent regional rainfall has moistened soils, further moderating temperature drops. With outcomes clustered between 22–25°C holding nearly equal implied probabilities, traders are weighting ensemble model divergence and the precise timing of any clearing skies, which could shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Guangzhou indicate a minimum temperature near 23–25°C on September 5, with model spreads arising from variable cloud cover, scattered showers, and weak northerly flow that limit nocturnal cooling. High humidity near 70–90% and light winds reduce radiative heat loss, while urban heat retention in the Pearl River Delta typically elevates overnight lows relative to rural baselines. Recent regional rainfall has moistened soils, further moderating temperature drops. With outcomes clustered between 22–25°C holding nearly equal implied probabilities, traders are weighting ensemble model divergence and the precise timing of any clearing skies, which could shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts for Guangzhou indicate a minimum temperature near 23–25°C on September 5, with model spreads arising from variable cloud cover, scattered showers, and weak northerly flow that limit nocturnal cooling. High humidity near 70–90% and light winds reduce radiative heat loss, while urban heat retention in the Pearl River Delta typically elevates overnight lows relative to rural baselines. Recent regional rainfall has moistened soils, further moderating temperature drops. With outcomes clustered between 22–25°C holding nearly equal implied probabilities, traders are weighting ensemble model divergence and the precise timing of any clearing skies, which could shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions