**Official Hong Kong Observatory data confirms a daily minimum temperature of 22.1°C at its headquarters on May 1, 2026—the gold standard for resolution—driving 100% implied probability on this outcome as traders price in verified observations from automated sensors.** Morning and evening bulletins reported this as the lowest reading over 24 hours, amid mostly cloudy skies and southerly winds that limited radiative cooling, consistent with HKO's pre-event forecasts of 21–22°C lows. May climatology typically features 23–25°C minima in Hong Kong's subtropical regime, making this mildly cooler but unremarkable. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include rare instrument recalibration or data audit revisions (historical rate under 0.1%), though final monthly summaries pose negligible risk to the established record.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?
22°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$15,619 Vol.
$15,619 Vol.
May 1, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$15,619 Vol.
$15,619 Vol.
May 1, 2026
16°C or below
$541 Vol.
No
17°C
$532 Vol.
No
18°C
$1,392 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,302 Vol.
No
20°C
$893 Vol.
No
21°C
$2,040 Vol.
No
22°C
$4,473 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$595 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,477 Vol.
No
25°C
$792 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$1,582 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official Hong Kong Observatory data confirms a daily minimum temperature of 22.1°C at its headquarters on May 1, 2026—the gold standard for resolution—driving 100% implied probability on this outcome as traders price in verified observations from automated sensors.** Morning and evening bulletins reported this as the lowest reading over 24 hours, amid mostly cloudy skies and southerly winds that limited radiative cooling, consistent with HKO's pre-event forecasts of 21–22°C lows. May climatology typically features 23–25°C minima in Hong Kong's subtropical regime, making this mildly cooler but unremarkable. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include rare instrument recalibration or data audit revisions (historical rate under 0.1%), though final monthly summaries pose negligible risk to the established record.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$15,619End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official Hong Kong Observatory data confirms a daily minimum temperature of 22.1°C at its headquarters on May 1, 2026—the gold standard for resolution—driving 100% implied probability on this outcome as traders price in verified observations from automated sensors.** Morning and evening bulletins reported this as the lowest reading over 24 hours, amid mostly cloudy skies and southerly winds that limited radiative cooling, consistent with HKO's pre-event forecasts of 21–22°C lows. May climatology typically features 23–25°C minima in Hong Kong's subtropical regime, making this mildly cooler but unremarkable. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include rare instrument recalibration or data audit revisions (historical rate under 0.1%), though final monthly summaries pose negligible risk to the established record.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$15,619End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Official Hong Kong Observatory data confirms a daily minimum temperature of 22.1°C at its headquarters on May 1, 2026—the gold standard for resolution—driving 100% implied probability on this outcome as traders price in verified observations from automated sensors.** Morning and evening bulletins reported this as the lowest reading over 24 hours, amid mostly cloudy skies and southerly winds that limited radiative cooling, consistent with HKO's pre-event forecasts of 21–22°C lows. May climatology typically features 23–25°C minima in Hong Kong's subtropical regime, making this mildly cooler but unremarkable. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include rare instrument recalibration or data audit revisions (historical rate under 0.1%), though final monthly summaries pose negligible risk to the established record.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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