High uncertainty in extended-range forecast models for coastal Pakistan is driving the closely matched market odds between a cool 21°C-or-below low (34.5%) and an unusually warm 31°C-or-higher low (34.5%) in Karachi on September 5. Variable late-monsoon conditions, including the position of the monsoon trough, cloud-cover extent, and southeasterly moisture flow from the Arabian Sea, create large spreads in overnight radiative cooling and minimum-temperature guidance from global ensembles. Historical September climatology shows typical overnight lows near 25–27°C, yet recent shifts in sea-surface temperatures and potential for clear-sky periods or localized thunderstorms introduce plausible tails toward both extremes. Traders are watching the next ECMWF and GFS model runs plus Pakistan Meteorological Department updates for clearer signals on humidity, wind, and precipitation trends ahead of the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Karachi on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Karachi on September 5?
21°C or below 69%
31°C or higher 69%
23°C 47%
24°C 47%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
21°C or below
69%
22°C
19%
23°C
47%
24°C
47%
25°C
24%
26°C
27%
27°C
28%
28°C
47%
29°C
47%
30°C
19%
31°C or higher
69%
21°C or below 69%
31°C or higher 69%
23°C 47%
24°C 47%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
22°C
$0 Vol.
19%
23°C
$0 Vol.
47%
24°C
$0 Vol.
47%
25°C
$0 Vol.
24%
26°C
$0 Vol.
27%
27°C
$0 Vol.
28%
28°C
$0 Vol.
47%
29°C
$0 Vol.
47%
30°C
$0 Vol.
19%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.High uncertainty in extended-range forecast models for coastal Pakistan is driving the closely matched market odds between a cool 21°C-or-below low (34.5%) and an unusually warm 31°C-or-higher low (34.5%) in Karachi on September 5. Variable late-monsoon conditions, including the position of the monsoon trough, cloud-cover extent, and southeasterly moisture flow from the Arabian Sea, create large spreads in overnight radiative cooling and minimum-temperature guidance from global ensembles. Historical September climatology shows typical overnight lows near 25–27°C, yet recent shifts in sea-surface temperatures and potential for clear-sky periods or localized thunderstorms introduce plausible tails toward both extremes. Traders are watching the next ECMWF and GFS model runs plus Pakistan Meteorological Department updates for clearer signals on humidity, wind, and precipitation trends ahead of the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.High uncertainty in extended-range forecast models for coastal Pakistan is driving the closely matched market odds between a cool 21°C-or-below low (34.5%) and an unusually warm 31°C-or-higher low (34.5%) in Karachi on September 5. Variable late-monsoon conditions, including the position of the monsoon trough, cloud-cover extent, and southeasterly moisture flow from the Arabian Sea, create large spreads in overnight radiative cooling and minimum-temperature guidance from global ensembles. Historical September climatology shows typical overnight lows near 25–27°C, yet recent shifts in sea-surface temperatures and potential for clear-sky periods or localized thunderstorms introduce plausible tails toward both extremes. Traders are watching the next ECMWF and GFS model runs plus Pakistan Meteorological Department updates for clearer signals on humidity, wind, and precipitation trends ahead of the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkcResolver
0x69c47De9D...High uncertainty in extended-range forecast models for coastal Pakistan is driving the closely matched market odds between a cool 21°C-or-below low (34.5%) and an unusually warm 31°C-or-higher low (34.5%) in Karachi on September 5. Variable late-monsoon conditions, including the position of the monsoon trough, cloud-cover extent, and southeasterly moisture flow from the Arabian Sea, create large spreads in overnight radiative cooling and minimum-temperature guidance from global ensembles. Historical September climatology shows typical overnight lows near 25–27°C, yet recent shifts in sea-surface temperatures and potential for clear-sky periods or localized thunderstorms introduce plausible tails toward both extremes. Traders are watching the next ECMWF and GFS model runs plus Pakistan Meteorological Department updates for clearer signals on humidity, wind, and precipitation trends ahead of the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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