Trader consensus around 20–22°C for London's June 25 overnight low reflects Met Office ensemble guidance during the current extreme heat event, with high pressure suppressing cloud cover and limiting nocturnal radiative cooling under light winds. Recent model runs show slight divergence on Atlantic moisture influx that could raise or suppress the minimum by 1–2°C, keeping probabilities tightly clustered. Above the long-term June average of 11–12°C, these conditions favor warmer-than-normal readings while underscoring forecast sensitivity to boundary-layer humidity and urban heat-island effects ahead of the next model update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on June 25?
Lowest temperature in London on June 25?
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$13,426 Vol.
$13,426 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$13,426 Vol.
$13,426 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
15°C or below
$223 Vol.
No
16°C
$581 Vol.
No
17°C
$596 Vol.
No
18°C
$1,058 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,584 Vol.
No
20°C
$4,615 Vol.
Yes
21°C
$1,930 Vol.
No
22°C
$634 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,121 Vol.
No
24°C
$698 Vol.
No
25°C or higher
$385 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 20–22°C for London's June 25 overnight low reflects Met Office ensemble guidance during the current extreme heat event, with high pressure suppressing cloud cover and limiting nocturnal radiative cooling under light winds. Recent model runs show slight divergence on Atlantic moisture influx that could raise or suppress the minimum by 1–2°C, keeping probabilities tightly clustered. Above the long-term June average of 11–12°C, these conditions favor warmer-than-normal readings while underscoring forecast sensitivity to boundary-layer humidity and urban heat-island effects ahead of the next model update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$13,426End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 20–22°C for London's June 25 overnight low reflects Met Office ensemble guidance during the current extreme heat event, with high pressure suppressing cloud cover and limiting nocturnal radiative cooling under light winds. Recent model runs show slight divergence on Atlantic moisture influx that could raise or suppress the minimum by 1–2°C, keeping probabilities tightly clustered. Above the long-term June average of 11–12°C, these conditions favor warmer-than-normal readings while underscoring forecast sensitivity to boundary-layer humidity and urban heat-island effects ahead of the next model update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,426End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus around 20–22°C for London's June 25 overnight low reflects Met Office ensemble guidance during the current extreme heat event, with high pressure suppressing cloud cover and limiting nocturnal radiative cooling under light winds. Recent model runs show slight divergence on Atlantic moisture influx that could raise or suppress the minimum by 1–2°C, keeping probabilities tightly clustered. Above the long-term June average of 11–12°C, these conditions favor warmer-than-normal readings while underscoring forecast sensitivity to boundary-layer humidity and urban heat-island effects ahead of the next model update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions