Persistent monsoon activity and widespread cloud cover across northern India are moderating overnight radiative cooling in Lucknow, supporting elevated minimum temperatures ahead of September 16. Official forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and models indicate a 25–27°C low with thunderstorms likely, consistent with September climatology where humidity often prevents sharp drops below 24°C. Recent heavy rains and above-normal seasonal precipitation have sustained high dew points near 25–26°C, reducing the chance of cooler readings. Trader consensus reflected in the 48.5% implied probability for a 30°C-or-higher minimum highlights expectations of continued warmth from these conditions, while lower-probability outcomes like 20°C or below remain limited by the active weather pattern and lack of clear-sky cooling. Updated model runs and India Meteorological Department briefings on the 15th–16th could refine these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Lucknow on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Lucknow on September 16?
20°C or below 69%
30°C or higher 68%
21°C 39%
22°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
20°C or below
69%
21°C
39%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C
39%
25°C
22%
26°C
26%
27°C
32%
28°C
39%
29°C
39%
30°C or higher
68%
20°C or below 69%
30°C or higher 68%
21°C 39%
22°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
39%
25°C
$0 Vol.
22%
26°C
$0 Vol.
26%
27°C
$0 Vol.
32%
28°C
$0 Vol.
39%
29°C
$0 Vol.
39%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
68%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent monsoon activity and widespread cloud cover across northern India are moderating overnight radiative cooling in Lucknow, supporting elevated minimum temperatures ahead of September 16. Official forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and models indicate a 25–27°C low with thunderstorms likely, consistent with September climatology where humidity often prevents sharp drops below 24°C. Recent heavy rains and above-normal seasonal precipitation have sustained high dew points near 25–26°C, reducing the chance of cooler readings. Trader consensus reflected in the 48.5% implied probability for a 30°C-or-higher minimum highlights expectations of continued warmth from these conditions, while lower-probability outcomes like 20°C or below remain limited by the active weather pattern and lack of clear-sky cooling. Updated model runs and India Meteorological Department briefings on the 15th–16th could refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent monsoon activity and widespread cloud cover across northern India are moderating overnight radiative cooling in Lucknow, supporting elevated minimum temperatures ahead of September 16. Official forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and models indicate a 25–27°C low with thunderstorms likely, consistent with September climatology where humidity often prevents sharp drops below 24°C. Recent heavy rains and above-normal seasonal precipitation have sustained high dew points near 25–26°C, reducing the chance of cooler readings. Trader consensus reflected in the 48.5% implied probability for a 30°C-or-higher minimum highlights expectations of continued warmth from these conditions, while lower-probability outcomes like 20°C or below remain limited by the active weather pattern and lack of clear-sky cooling. Updated model runs and India Meteorological Department briefings on the 15th–16th could refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent monsoon activity and widespread cloud cover across northern India are moderating overnight radiative cooling in Lucknow, supporting elevated minimum temperatures ahead of September 16. Official forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and models indicate a 25–27°C low with thunderstorms likely, consistent with September climatology where humidity often prevents sharp drops below 24°C. Recent heavy rains and above-normal seasonal precipitation have sustained high dew points near 25–26°C, reducing the chance of cooler readings. Trader consensus reflected in the 48.5% implied probability for a 30°C-or-higher minimum highlights expectations of continued warmth from these conditions, while lower-probability outcomes like 20°C or below remain limited by the active weather pattern and lack of clear-sky cooling. Updated model runs and India Meteorological Department briefings on the 15th–16th could refine these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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