Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with AEMET and GFS data, point to clear skies and light winds overnight on August 21, supporting radiative cooling that positions the minimum temperature near 19°C. Moderate humidity levels around 40-60% and stable high pressure limit cloud cover or mixing, consistent with historical August lows averaging near 19°C in Madrid. Recent observations from prior nights show similar cooling to 20-22°C under comparable conditions, with no incoming frontal systems or significant moisture to moderate the drop. Trader consensus favoring 19°C or 18°C reflects these factors, though slight variations in wind or urban heat retention could shift the final reading by 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 21?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 21?
19°C 94%
17°C 58%
16°C 29%
18°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
29%
17°C
58%
18°C
26%
19°C
76%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 94%
17°C 58%
16°C 29%
18°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
14°C or below
$90 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$114 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$94 Vol.
29%
17°C
$66 Vol.
58%
18°C
$21 Vol.
26%
19°C
$20 Vol.
76%
20°C
$130 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$183 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$191 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$259 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$209 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with AEMET and GFS data, point to clear skies and light winds overnight on August 21, supporting radiative cooling that positions the minimum temperature near 19°C. Moderate humidity levels around 40-60% and stable high pressure limit cloud cover or mixing, consistent with historical August lows averaging near 19°C in Madrid. Recent observations from prior nights show similar cooling to 20-22°C under comparable conditions, with no incoming frontal systems or significant moisture to moderate the drop. Trader consensus favoring 19°C or 18°C reflects these factors, though slight variations in wind or urban heat retention could shift the final reading by 1°C.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
Volume
$1,377End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with AEMET and GFS data, point to clear skies and light winds overnight on August 21, supporting radiative cooling that positions the minimum temperature near 19°C. Moderate humidity levels around 40-60% and stable high pressure limit cloud cover or mixing, consistent with historical August lows averaging near 19°C in Madrid. Recent observations from prior nights show similar cooling to 20-22°C under comparable conditions, with no incoming frontal systems or significant moisture to moderate the drop. Trader consensus favoring 19°C or 18°C reflects these factors, though slight variations in wind or urban heat retention could shift the final reading by 1°C.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,377End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with AEMET and GFS data, point to clear skies and light winds overnight on August 21, supporting radiative cooling that positions the minimum temperature near 19°C. Moderate humidity levels around 40-60% and stable high pressure limit cloud cover or mixing, consistent with historical August lows averaging near 19°C in Madrid. Recent observations from prior nights show similar cooling to 20-22°C under comparable conditions, with no incoming frontal systems or significant moisture to moderate the drop. Trader consensus favoring 19°C or 18°C reflects these factors, though slight variations in wind or urban heat retention could shift the final reading by 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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