**Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) activity and associated cloud cover, scattered rains, and thunderstorms are the dominant factors keeping overnight lows in Manila near 23–24 °C on September 10.** Official PAGASA guidance for Metro Manila explicitly forecasts a 24–31 °C range under cloudy skies with scattered showers, consistent with recent station observations showing a 24.5 °C minimum early on the 10th. High humidity (often 85–95 %) and light winds limit radiational cooling, while daytime convection and rainfall further suppress the diurnal temperature range. Ensemble model guidance and local forecasts converge on nighttime minima of roughly 25–26 °C (77–79 °F), but recent trends of slightly cooler mornings amid ongoing monsoon flow support the market’s heavy weighting toward 23–24 °C. No major tropical cyclone or abrupt shift in steering patterns has emerged in the past 24–48 hours to alter this setup, and traders are pricing the outcome near official agency thresholds rather than historical September averages. Updated PAGASA briefings and the next model runs remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 10?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 10?
24°C 99%
23°C 20%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
$1,877 Vol.
$1,877 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
24°C 99%
23°C 20%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
$1,877 Vol.
$1,877 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
20°C or below
$65 Vol.
No
21°C
$107 Vol.
No
22°C
$85 Vol.
No
23°C
$57 Vol.
No
24°C
$231 Vol.
Yes
25°C
$1,114 Vol.
No
26°C
$73 Vol.
No
27°C
$75 Vol.
No
28°C
$15 Vol.
No
29°C
$15 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$40 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) activity and associated cloud cover, scattered rains, and thunderstorms are the dominant factors keeping overnight lows in Manila near 23–24 °C on September 10.**
Official PAGASA guidance for Metro Manila explicitly forecasts a 24–31 °C range under cloudy skies with scattered showers, consistent with recent station observations showing a 24.5 °C minimum early on the 10th. High humidity (often 85–95 %) and light winds limit radiational cooling, while daytime convection and rainfall further suppress the diurnal temperature range. Ensemble model guidance and local forecasts converge on nighttime minima of roughly 25–26 °C (77–79 °F), but recent trends of slightly cooler mornings amid ongoing monsoon flow support the market’s heavy weighting toward 23–24 °C.
No major tropical cyclone or abrupt shift in steering patterns has emerged in the past 24–48 hours to alter this setup, and traders are pricing the outcome near official agency thresholds rather than historical September averages. Updated PAGASA briefings and the next model runs remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$1,877End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) activity and associated cloud cover, scattered rains, and thunderstorms are the dominant factors keeping overnight lows in Manila near 23–24 °C on September 10.**
Official PAGASA guidance for Metro Manila explicitly forecasts a 24–31 °C range under cloudy skies with scattered showers, consistent with recent station observations showing a 24.5 °C minimum early on the 10th. High humidity (often 85–95 %) and light winds limit radiational cooling, while daytime convection and rainfall further suppress the diurnal temperature range. Ensemble model guidance and local forecasts converge on nighttime minima of roughly 25–26 °C (77–79 °F), but recent trends of slightly cooler mornings amid ongoing monsoon flow support the market’s heavy weighting toward 23–24 °C.
No major tropical cyclone or abrupt shift in steering patterns has emerged in the past 24–48 hours to alter this setup, and traders are pricing the outcome near official agency thresholds rather than historical September averages. Updated PAGASA briefings and the next model runs remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,877End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) activity and associated cloud cover, scattered rains, and thunderstorms are the dominant factors keeping overnight lows in Manila near 23–24 °C on September 10.** Official PAGASA guidance for Metro Manila explicitly forecasts a 24–31 °C range under cloudy skies with scattered showers, consistent with recent station observations showing a 24.5 °C minimum early on the 10th. High humidity (often 85–95 %) and light winds limit radiational cooling, while daytime convection and rainfall further suppress the diurnal temperature range. Ensemble model guidance and local forecasts converge on nighttime minima of roughly 25–26 °C (77–79 °F), but recent trends of slightly cooler mornings amid ongoing monsoon flow support the market’s heavy weighting toward 23–24 °C. No major tropical cyclone or abrupt shift in steering patterns has emerged in the past 24–48 hours to alter this setup, and traders are pricing the outcome near official agency thresholds rather than historical September averages. Updated PAGASA briefings and the next model runs remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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