Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate minimum temperatures in Milan on September 5 near 22–23°C, driven by persistent high pressure, light westerly winds, and clear skies limiting overnight radiative cooling. This places the most likely range around 20–23°C, though ensemble spreads show potential for 1–3°C deviations from local urban heat island effects or subtle shifts in dew points. Trader odds remain closely clustered across 15–25°C outcomes because short-range model runs still carry uncertainty in exact timing of any weak frontal passage or boundary-layer mixing two days out, with fresh updates from European and U.S. centers expected to refine the precise low before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Milan on September 5?
15°C or below 69%
25°C or higher 57%
16°C 49%
22°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
15°C or below
69%
16°C
49%
17°C
26%
18°C
29%
19°C
30%
20°C
30%
21°C
30%
22°C
49%
23°C
2%
24°C
19%
25°C or higher
57%
15°C or below 69%
25°C or higher 57%
16°C 49%
22°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
16°C
$0 Vol.
49%
17°C
$0 Vol.
26%
18°C
$0 Vol.
29%
19°C
$0 Vol.
30%
20°C
$0 Vol.
30%
21°C
$0 Vol.
30%
22°C
$0 Vol.
49%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
19%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
57%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate minimum temperatures in Milan on September 5 near 22–23°C, driven by persistent high pressure, light westerly winds, and clear skies limiting overnight radiative cooling. This places the most likely range around 20–23°C, though ensemble spreads show potential for 1–3°C deviations from local urban heat island effects or subtle shifts in dew points. Trader odds remain closely clustered across 15–25°C outcomes because short-range model runs still carry uncertainty in exact timing of any weak frontal passage or boundary-layer mixing two days out, with fresh updates from European and U.S. centers expected to refine the precise low before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate minimum temperatures in Milan on September 5 near 22–23°C, driven by persistent high pressure, light westerly winds, and clear skies limiting overnight radiative cooling. This places the most likely range around 20–23°C, though ensemble spreads show potential for 1–3°C deviations from local urban heat island effects or subtle shifts in dew points. Trader odds remain closely clustered across 15–25°C outcomes because short-range model runs still carry uncertainty in exact timing of any weak frontal passage or boundary-layer mixing two days out, with fresh updates from European and U.S. centers expected to refine the precise low before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate minimum temperatures in Milan on September 5 near 22–23°C, driven by persistent high pressure, light westerly winds, and clear skies limiting overnight radiative cooling. This places the most likely range around 20–23°C, though ensemble spreads show potential for 1–3°C deviations from local urban heat island effects or subtle shifts in dew points. Trader odds remain closely clustered across 15–25°C outcomes because short-range model runs still carry uncertainty in exact timing of any weak frontal passage or boundary-layer mixing two days out, with fresh updates from European and U.S. centers expected to refine the precise low before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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