Forecasts from multiple models point to a mild overnight period for Moscow on September 4, with minimum temperatures most likely falling between 12–14°C under southwesterly flow and partial cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. Historical September climatology shows average lows near 10°C, but the current air mass and weak pressure gradient favor warmer conditions. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 11–14°C because small differences in boundary-layer mixing, dew-point advection, and the precise timing of the daily minimum create substantial uncertainty in numerical weather prediction ensembles. Traders are pricing in this model spread rather than a single deterministic value, with no major synoptic shift expected before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 4?
10°C 94%
16°C or higher 94%
7°C 93%
12°C 93%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
6°C or below
92%
7°C
93%
8°C
92%
9°C
92%
10°C
94%
11°C
51%
12°C
93%
13°C
90%
14°C
49%
15°C
90%
16°C or higher
94%
10°C 94%
16°C or higher 94%
7°C 93%
12°C 93%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
6°C or below
$0 Vol.
92%
7°C
$0 Vol.
93%
8°C
$0 Vol.
92%
9°C
$0 Vol.
92%
10°C
$0 Vol.
94%
11°C
$0 Vol.
51%
12°C
$0 Vol.
93%
13°C
$0 Vol.
90%
14°C
$0 Vol.
49%
15°C
$0 Vol.
90%
16°C or higher
$0 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from multiple models point to a mild overnight period for Moscow on September 4, with minimum temperatures most likely falling between 12–14°C under southwesterly flow and partial cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. Historical September climatology shows average lows near 10°C, but the current air mass and weak pressure gradient favor warmer conditions. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 11–14°C because small differences in boundary-layer mixing, dew-point advection, and the precise timing of the daily minimum create substantial uncertainty in numerical weather prediction ensembles. Traders are pricing in this model spread rather than a single deterministic value, with no major synoptic shift expected before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from multiple models point to a mild overnight period for Moscow on September 4, with minimum temperatures most likely falling between 12–14°C under southwesterly flow and partial cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. Historical September climatology shows average lows near 10°C, but the current air mass and weak pressure gradient favor warmer conditions. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 11–14°C because small differences in boundary-layer mixing, dew-point advection, and the precise timing of the daily minimum create substantial uncertainty in numerical weather prediction ensembles. Traders are pricing in this model spread rather than a single deterministic value, with no major synoptic shift expected before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts from multiple models point to a mild overnight period for Moscow on September 4, with minimum temperatures most likely falling between 12–14°C under southwesterly flow and partial cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. Historical September climatology shows average lows near 10°C, but the current air mass and weak pressure gradient favor warmer conditions. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 11–14°C because small differences in boundary-layer mixing, dew-point advection, and the precise timing of the daily minimum create substantial uncertainty in numerical weather prediction ensembles. Traders are pricing in this model spread rather than a single deterministic value, with no major synoptic shift expected before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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