Short-term NWS and ensemble forecasts for New York City point to an overnight low near 69–72°F on August 14, driven by light westerly winds, partly cloudy skies limiting radiative cooling, and elevated dew points typical of late-summer humidity. These conditions suppress the usual nocturnal drop, keeping temperatures above seasonal norms for the period. Trader consensus clusters on 72–75°F ranges because models show minor divergence in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing that could shift the minimum by 1–2 degrees. Historical Central Park data indicate average August lows near 68°F, so current guidance reflects warmer-than-normal persistence without a strong cold advection event. Resolution hinges on the official minimum reported at the designated station, with any unexpected clear-sky strengthening potentially favoring the lower bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 14?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 14?
72-73°F 37%
74-75°F 35%
70-71°F 17%
76-77°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
63°F or below
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
5%
70-71°F
17%
72-73°F
37%
74-75°F
35%
76-77°F
13%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82°F or higher
1%
72-73°F 37%
74-75°F 35%
70-71°F 17%
76-77°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
63°F or below
$291 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$301 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$13 Vol.
3%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
5%
70-71°F
$119 Vol.
17%
72-73°F
$44 Vol.
37%
74-75°F
$114 Vol.
35%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
13%
78-79°F
$137 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$117 Vol.
1%
82°F or higher
$12 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term NWS and ensemble forecasts for New York City point to an overnight low near 69–72°F on August 14, driven by light westerly winds, partly cloudy skies limiting radiative cooling, and elevated dew points typical of late-summer humidity. These conditions suppress the usual nocturnal drop, keeping temperatures above seasonal norms for the period. Trader consensus clusters on 72–75°F ranges because models show minor divergence in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing that could shift the minimum by 1–2 degrees. Historical Central Park data indicate average August lows near 68°F, so current guidance reflects warmer-than-normal persistence without a strong cold advection event. Resolution hinges on the official minimum reported at the designated station, with any unexpected clear-sky strengthening potentially favoring the lower bins.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$1,148End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term NWS and ensemble forecasts for New York City point to an overnight low near 69–72°F on August 14, driven by light westerly winds, partly cloudy skies limiting radiative cooling, and elevated dew points typical of late-summer humidity. These conditions suppress the usual nocturnal drop, keeping temperatures above seasonal norms for the period. Trader consensus clusters on 72–75°F ranges because models show minor divergence in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing that could shift the minimum by 1–2 degrees. Historical Central Park data indicate average August lows near 68°F, so current guidance reflects warmer-than-normal persistence without a strong cold advection event. Resolution hinges on the official minimum reported at the designated station, with any unexpected clear-sky strengthening potentially favoring the lower bins.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,148End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term NWS and ensemble forecasts for New York City point to an overnight low near 69–72°F on August 14, driven by light westerly winds, partly cloudy skies limiting radiative cooling, and elevated dew points typical of late-summer humidity. These conditions suppress the usual nocturnal drop, keeping temperatures above seasonal norms for the period. Trader consensus clusters on 72–75°F ranges because models show minor divergence in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing that could shift the minimum by 1–2 degrees. Historical Central Park data indicate average August lows near 68°F, so current guidance reflects warmer-than-normal persistence without a strong cold advection event. Resolution hinges on the official minimum reported at the designated station, with any unexpected clear-sky strengthening potentially favoring the lower bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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