Current forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Météo-France ensembles indicate clear, high-pressure conditions over Paris with light southeasterly flow, supporting overnight radiative cooling and a most likely minimum temperature of 11–13°C on September 25. Trader consensus, reflected in the 34.5% implied probability for 11°C and 22% for 10°C, aligns with this range while pricing in modest uncertainty from model spread in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island effects. Historical September averages near 10.7°C provide context, but the current setup lacks strong cold advection. Updated model runs and Météo-France briefings on September 24 will further constrain the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on September 25?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 25?
15°C 35%
17°C 35%
11°C 26%
19°C or higher 23.9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
9°C or below
18%
10°C
22%
11°C
35%
12°C
19%
13°C
15%
14°C
14%
15°C
35%
16°C
2%
17°C
35%
18°C
2%
19°C or higher
24%
15°C 35%
17°C 35%
11°C 26%
19°C or higher 23.9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
18%
10°C
$0 Vol.
22%
11°C
$26 Vol.
35%
12°C
$0 Vol.
19%
13°C
$0 Vol.
15%
14°C
$0 Vol.
14%
15°C
$0 Vol.
35%
16°C
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C
$0 Vol.
35%
18°C
$0 Vol.
2%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Météo-France ensembles indicate clear, high-pressure conditions over Paris with light southeasterly flow, supporting overnight radiative cooling and a most likely minimum temperature of 11–13°C on September 25. Trader consensus, reflected in the 34.5% implied probability for 11°C and 22% for 10°C, aligns with this range while pricing in modest uncertainty from model spread in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island effects. Historical September averages near 10.7°C provide context, but the current setup lacks strong cold advection. Updated model runs and Météo-France briefings on September 24 will further constrain the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Météo-France ensembles indicate clear, high-pressure conditions over Paris with light southeasterly flow, supporting overnight radiative cooling and a most likely minimum temperature of 11–13°C on September 25. Trader consensus, reflected in the 34.5% implied probability for 11°C and 22% for 10°C, aligns with this range while pricing in modest uncertainty from model spread in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island effects. Historical September averages near 10.7°C provide context, but the current setup lacks strong cold advection. Updated model runs and Météo-France briefings on September 24 will further constrain the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Météo-France ensembles indicate clear, high-pressure conditions over Paris with light southeasterly flow, supporting overnight radiative cooling and a most likely minimum temperature of 11–13°C on September 25. Trader consensus, reflected in the 34.5% implied probability for 11°C and 22% for 10°C, aligns with this range while pricing in modest uncertainty from model spread in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island effects. Historical September averages near 10.7°C provide context, but the current setup lacks strong cold advection. Updated model runs and Météo-France briefings on September 24 will further constrain the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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