**Trader consensus has converged on an 18°C minimum for Seoul/Incheon on September 12, 2026, with near-100% implied probability.** Multiple forecast models, including those aligned with Korea Meteorological Administration guidance and international ensembles, project overnight lows stabilizing near this threshold under mostly cloudy conditions with light northerly winds and high humidity. Recent observations show temperatures declining to 18–20°C during the early morning hours, consistent with climatological September averages of roughly 17–18°C for the region. This strong alignment of real-time data and model runs leaves little room for deviation in the final recorded minimum. Only a sharp, unforecasted drop from a passing front or station-specific microclimate effects at Incheon versus central Seoul could realistically shift the outcome toward 17°C or lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 12?
18°C 100.0%
16°C <1%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
$10,472 Vol.
$10,472 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
100%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
18°C 100.0%
16°C <1%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
$10,472 Vol.
$10,472 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
13°C or below
$259 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$56 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$56 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$238 Vol.
1%
17°C
$2,200 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$3,512 Vol.
100%
19°C
$2,961 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$393 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$251 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$287 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$259 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on an 18°C minimum for Seoul/Incheon on September 12, 2026, with near-100% implied probability.** Multiple forecast models, including those aligned with Korea Meteorological Administration guidance and international ensembles, project overnight lows stabilizing near this threshold under mostly cloudy conditions with light northerly winds and high humidity. Recent observations show temperatures declining to 18–20°C during the early morning hours, consistent with climatological September averages of roughly 17–18°C for the region. This strong alignment of real-time data and model runs leaves little room for deviation in the final recorded minimum. Only a sharp, unforecasted drop from a passing front or station-specific microclimate effects at Incheon versus central Seoul could realistically shift the outcome toward 17°C or lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$10,472End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksiResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on an 18°C minimum for Seoul/Incheon on September 12, 2026, with near-100% implied probability.** Multiple forecast models, including those aligned with Korea Meteorological Administration guidance and international ensembles, project overnight lows stabilizing near this threshold under mostly cloudy conditions with light northerly winds and high humidity. Recent observations show temperatures declining to 18–20°C during the early morning hours, consistent with climatological September averages of roughly 17–18°C for the region. This strong alignment of real-time data and model runs leaves little room for deviation in the final recorded minimum. Only a sharp, unforecasted drop from a passing front or station-specific microclimate effects at Incheon versus central Seoul could realistically shift the outcome toward 17°C or lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,472End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksiResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus has converged on an 18°C minimum for Seoul/Incheon on September 12, 2026, with near-100% implied probability.** Multiple forecast models, including those aligned with Korea Meteorological Administration guidance and international ensembles, project overnight lows stabilizing near this threshold under mostly cloudy conditions with light northerly winds and high humidity. Recent observations show temperatures declining to 18–20°C during the early morning hours, consistent with climatological September averages of roughly 17–18°C for the region. This strong alignment of real-time data and model runs leaves little room for deviation in the final recorded minimum. Only a sharp, unforecasted drop from a passing front or station-specific microclimate effects at Incheon versus central Seoul could realistically shift the outcome toward 17°C or lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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