**Current forecast models from multiple meteorological sources converge on a minimum temperature of 21–22°C for Shanghai on September 16, 2026, with highs near 28–29°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies and light northeast winds.** This consensus, driven by stable high pressure and typical mid-September northeasterly flow, positions 22°C as the leading outcome at 39% implied probability. Nearby bins (21°C at 19.5%, 23°C at 22%) capture model spread and minor uncertainties in overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover. Warmer extremes such as 27°C or higher (24.5%) reflect scenarios with stronger southerly flow or delayed cooling, while colder outcomes (17°C or below at 10%) remain low-probability given the absence of significant cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative loss in current guidance. Updated model runs and official agency briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the primary catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 16?
22°C 38%
27°C or higher 31%
23°C 29%
24°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
17°C or below
9%
18°C
21%
19°C
24%
20°C
24%
21°C
19%
22°C
38%
23°C
29%
24°C
27%
25°C
24%
26°C
20%
27°C or higher
31%
22°C 38%
27°C or higher 31%
23°C 29%
24°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
9%
18°C
$0 Vol.
21%
19°C
$0 Vol.
24%
20°C
$0 Vol.
24%
21°C
$0 Vol.
19%
22°C
$77 Vol.
38%
23°C
$0 Vol.
29%
24°C
$0 Vol.
27%
25°C
$0 Vol.
24%
26°C
$0 Vol.
20%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models from multiple meteorological sources converge on a minimum temperature of 21–22°C for Shanghai on September 16, 2026, with highs near 28–29°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies and light northeast winds.**
This consensus, driven by stable high pressure and typical mid-September northeasterly flow, positions 22°C as the leading outcome at 39% implied probability. Nearby bins (21°C at 19.5%, 23°C at 22%) capture model spread and minor uncertainties in overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover.
Warmer extremes such as 27°C or higher (24.5%) reflect scenarios with stronger southerly flow or delayed cooling, while colder outcomes (17°C or below at 10%) remain low-probability given the absence of significant cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative loss in current guidance.
Updated model runs and official agency briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the primary catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$77End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models from multiple meteorological sources converge on a minimum temperature of 21–22°C for Shanghai on September 16, 2026, with highs near 28–29°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies and light northeast winds.**
This consensus, driven by stable high pressure and typical mid-September northeasterly flow, positions 22°C as the leading outcome at 39% implied probability. Nearby bins (21°C at 19.5%, 23°C at 22%) capture model spread and minor uncertainties in overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover.
Warmer extremes such as 27°C or higher (24.5%) reflect scenarios with stronger southerly flow or delayed cooling, while colder outcomes (17°C or below at 10%) remain low-probability given the absence of significant cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative loss in current guidance.
Updated model runs and official agency briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the primary catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$77End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecast models from multiple meteorological sources converge on a minimum temperature of 21–22°C for Shanghai on September 16, 2026, with highs near 28–29°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies and light northeast winds.** This consensus, driven by stable high pressure and typical mid-September northeasterly flow, positions 22°C as the leading outcome at 39% implied probability. Nearby bins (21°C at 19.5%, 23°C at 22%) capture model spread and minor uncertainties in overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover. Warmer extremes such as 27°C or higher (24.5%) reflect scenarios with stronger southerly flow or delayed cooling, while colder outcomes (17°C or below at 10%) remain low-probability given the absence of significant cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative loss in current guidance. Updated model runs and official agency briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the primary catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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