**Forecast consensus points to a daily minimum near 24–25°C on September 4 in Tel Aviv, consistent with typical early-September Mediterranean conditions.** Multiple operational models and local forecasts (including GFS-influenced guidance and high-resolution runs) show overnight lows stabilizing around 24–26°C under light southerly or westerly flow, clear-to-partly cloudy skies, and dew points near 20–22°C. This places the most likely outcome in the 23–25°C range, aligning with the market’s elevated probabilities for those specific bins. The near-even split between the broad “20°C or below” and “30°C or higher” categories reflects residual model spread and the inherent uncertainty in pinpointing an exact 24-hour minimum rather than any active signal for extremes. No incoming trough, heat advection, or significant cloud cover is expected to drive notable deviations from climatology in the next 48 hours. Updated model runs and official Israeli Meteorological Service guidance on September 3 will provide the final refinement ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 4?
21°C 87%
23°C 87%
22°C 84%
25°C 84%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
20°C or below
49%
21°C
87%
22°C
84%
23°C
87%
24°C
47%
25°C
84%
26°C
8%
27°C
8%
28°C
8%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
49%
21°C 87%
23°C 87%
22°C 84%
25°C 84%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
49%
21°C
$0 Vol.
87%
22°C
$0 Vol.
84%
23°C
$0 Vol.
87%
24°C
$0 Vol.
47%
25°C
$0 Vol.
84%
26°C
$12 Vol.
8%
27°C
$12 Vol.
8%
28°C
$34 Vol.
8%
29°C
$0 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a daily minimum near 24–25°C on September 4 in Tel Aviv, consistent with typical early-September Mediterranean conditions.** Multiple operational models and local forecasts (including GFS-influenced guidance and high-resolution runs) show overnight lows stabilizing around 24–26°C under light southerly or westerly flow, clear-to-partly cloudy skies, and dew points near 20–22°C. This places the most likely outcome in the 23–25°C range, aligning with the market’s elevated probabilities for those specific bins.
The near-even split between the broad “20°C or below” and “30°C or higher” categories reflects residual model spread and the inherent uncertainty in pinpointing an exact 24-hour minimum rather than any active signal for extremes. No incoming trough, heat advection, or significant cloud cover is expected to drive notable deviations from climatology in the next 48 hours. Updated model runs and official Israeli Meteorological Service guidance on September 3 will provide the final refinement ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$58End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a daily minimum near 24–25°C on September 4 in Tel Aviv, consistent with typical early-September Mediterranean conditions.** Multiple operational models and local forecasts (including GFS-influenced guidance and high-resolution runs) show overnight lows stabilizing around 24–26°C under light southerly or westerly flow, clear-to-partly cloudy skies, and dew points near 20–22°C. This places the most likely outcome in the 23–25°C range, aligning with the market’s elevated probabilities for those specific bins.
The near-even split between the broad “20°C or below” and “30°C or higher” categories reflects residual model spread and the inherent uncertainty in pinpointing an exact 24-hour minimum rather than any active signal for extremes. No incoming trough, heat advection, or significant cloud cover is expected to drive notable deviations from climatology in the next 48 hours. Updated model runs and official Israeli Meteorological Service guidance on September 3 will provide the final refinement ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$58End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus points to a daily minimum near 24–25°C on September 4 in Tel Aviv, consistent with typical early-September Mediterranean conditions.** Multiple operational models and local forecasts (including GFS-influenced guidance and high-resolution runs) show overnight lows stabilizing around 24–26°C under light southerly or westerly flow, clear-to-partly cloudy skies, and dew points near 20–22°C. This places the most likely outcome in the 23–25°C range, aligning with the market’s elevated probabilities for those specific bins. The near-even split between the broad “20°C or below” and “30°C or higher” categories reflects residual model spread and the inherent uncertainty in pinpointing an exact 24-hour minimum rather than any active signal for extremes. No incoming trough, heat advection, or significant cloud cover is expected to drive notable deviations from climatology in the next 48 hours. Updated model runs and official Israeli Meteorological Service guidance on September 3 will provide the final refinement ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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